Unglaub Bianca, Steinfartz Sebastian, Drechsler Axel, Schmidt Benedikt R
Zoological Institute, Department of Evolutionary Biology, Unit Molecular Ecology, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Mendelssohnstraße 4, Braunschweig, 38106 Germany ; Department of Animal Ecology and Conservation, Biocentre Grindel, University of Hamburg, Martin-Luther-King Platz 3, Hamburg, 20146 Germany.
Zoological Institute, Department of Evolutionary Biology, Unit Molecular Ecology, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Mendelssohnstraße 4, Braunschweig, 38106 Germany.
Front Zool. 2015 May 14;12:9. doi: 10.1186/s12983-015-0103-3. eCollection 2015.
Elucidating the relationship between habitat characteristics and population parameters is critical for effective conservation. Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are often used in wildlife management and conservation practice assuming that they predict species occurrence, abundance and demography. However, the relationship between vital rates such as survival and reproduction and habitat suitability has rarely been evaluated. In this study, we used pond occupancy and mark-recapture data to test whether HSI predicts occupancy, reproduction and survival probabilities. Our model species is the great crested newt (Triturus cristatus), a pond-breeding amphibian protected under the European Habitats Directive.
Our results show a positive relationship between the HSI and reproduction probability, whereas pond occupancy and survival probabilities were not related to HSI. Mortality was found to be higher during breeding seasons when newts are in ponds than during terrestrial phases of adult newts.
Habitat suitability models are increasingly applied to wildlife management and conservation practice. We found that the HSI model predicted reproduction probability, rather than occurrence or survival. If HSI models indicate breeding populations rather than mere species occurrences, they may be used to identify habitats of higher priority for conservation. Future HSI models might be improved through modelling breeding populations vs. non-breeding populations rather than presence/absence data. However, according to our results the most suitable habitat is not necessarily the habitat where demographic performance is best. We recommend that conservation practitioners should use HSI models cautiously because there may be no direct link between habitat suitability, demography and consequently, population viability.
阐明栖息地特征与种群参数之间的关系对于有效保护至关重要。栖息地适宜性指数（HSI）模型常用于野生动物管理和保护实践，假定它们能预测物种的出现、丰度和种群统计学特征。然而，诸如生存和繁殖等生命率与栖息地适宜性之间的关系很少得到评估。在本研究中，我们使用池塘占有率和标记重捕数据来检验HSI是否能预测占有率、繁殖和生存概率。我们的模型物种是大冠蝾螈（Triturus cristatus），一种受欧洲栖息地指令保护的池塘繁殖两栖动物。
我们的结果表明HSI与繁殖概率之间存在正相关关系，而池塘占有率和生存概率与HSI无关。研究发现，蝾螈在池塘繁殖季节的死亡率高于成年蝾螈的陆地阶段。
栖息地适宜性模型越来越多地应用于野生动物管理和保护实践。我们发现HSI模型预测的是繁殖概率，而非出现概率或生存概率。如果HSI模型指示的是繁殖种群而非仅仅是物种出现情况，那么它们可用于识别更高保护优先级的栖息地。未来的HSI模型或许可通过对繁殖种群与非繁殖种群进行建模而非存在/缺失数据来改进。然而，根据我们的结果，最合适的栖息地不一定是种群统计学表现最佳的栖息地。我们建议保护从业者应谨慎使用HSI模型，因为栖息地适宜性、种群统计学特征以及种群生存力之间可能不存在直接联系。
