Qiao Donghai, Wang Gaoshang, Gao Tianming, Wen Bojie, Dai Tao
MNR Key Laboratory of Saline Lake Resources and Environments, Institute of Mineral Resources, CAGS, Beijing 100037, China; Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Institute of Mineral Resources, CAGS, Beijing 100037, China.
Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Institute of Mineral Resources, CAGS, Beijing 100037, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Apr 10;764:142835. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142835. Epub 2020 Oct 8.
China is expected to realise the complete electrification of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) by 2050. The rapid development of electric vehicles (EVs) has led to the continuous growth of traction lithium-ion battery (LIB) demand, leading to an increase in demand for specific lithium materials. Therefore, end-of-life (EoL) LIB recycling will largely determine the future lithium availability in China. However, the contribution of recovered lithium to lithium availability is unclear, as the possibility of recovering lithium for reuse in traction LIBs manufacturing is uncertain. To analyse the influence of recovered lithium quality on future lithium availability, we evaluated the potential impact of EoL LIB recycling on lithium demand in China. The results indicated that if new LIB manufacturing cannot use the recovered lithium; the secondary resources would soon exceed the needs of the basic demand (BD) field. In the optimistic scenario, when a LiS battery is used, the oversupply could reach 2.33 Mt by 2050 with a recovery rate of 80%, which is equivalent to 44.05% of China's current lithium reserves of 5.29 Mt. Additionally, when the NCM-G battery is used, the total lithium demand would reach approximately 5.67 Mt in 2031, exceeding China's current lithium reserves. In contrast, if the recovered lithium could be reused in new LIB manufacturing, regardless of the type of LIBs used, the recovered lithium would meet approximately 60% (pessimistic scenario), 53% (neutral scenario), and 49% (optimistic scenario) of the lithium demand for LIBs produced with a recovery rate of 80% by 2050. Consequently, the quality of recovered lithium is very important for its reuse, and it is necessary to develop closed-loop recycling with economic benefits vigorously by improving the quality of recovered lithium. Moreover, much work should be done in recycling infrastructure and industrial policies to promote EoL battery recycling.
预计到2050年中国将实现传统内燃机汽车的全面电气化。电动汽车（EV）的快速发展导致牵引锂离子电池（LIB）需求持续增长，进而导致对特定锂材料的需求增加。因此，报废锂离子电池回收将在很大程度上决定中国未来的锂供应情况。然而，回收锂对锂供应的贡献尚不清楚，因为在牵引锂离子电池制造中回收锂以供再利用的可能性并不确定。为了分析回收锂质量对未来锂供应的影响，我们评估了报废锂离子电池回收对中国锂需求的潜在影响。结果表明，如果新的锂离子电池制造无法使用回收锂，二次资源将很快超过基本需求（BD）领域的需求。在乐观情景下，当使用锂硫电池时，到2050年回收率为80%时，供应过剩可能达到233万吨，这相当于中国目前529万吨锂储量的44.05%。此外，当使用镍钴锰石墨（NCM-G）电池时，2031年锂总需求将达到约567万吨，超过中国目前的锂储量。相比之下，如果回收锂能够在新的锂离子电池制造中再利用，无论使用何种类型的锂离子电池，到2050年回收率为80%时，回收锂将满足约60%（悲观情景）、53%（中性情景）和49%（乐观情景）的锂离子电池锂需求。因此，回收锂的质量对其再利用非常重要，有必要通过提高回收锂的质量大力发展具有经济效益的闭环回收。此外，在回收基础设施和产业政策方面应做大量工作，以促进报废电池回收。
