Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Brunel University London, Uxbridge, Middlesex, UK.
Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Waste Manag Res. 2023 Feb;41(2):376-388. doi: 10.1177/0734242X221127175. Epub 2022 Nov 12.
The global market for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is continuously increasing which results in higher material demand for the production of Li-ion batteries (LIBs). Therefore, the end of life (EOL) of batteries must be handled properly through reusing or recycling to minimize the supply chain issues in future LIBs. This study analyses the global distribution of EOL lithium nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) oxide batteries from BEVs. The Stanford estimation model is used, assuming that the lifespan of NMC batteries follows a Weibull distribution. The global sales data of NMC batteries from 2009 to 2018 were collected and the sales data from 2019 to 2030 were estimated based on historical trends and BEV development plans in the top 10 countries for BEV sales. The result shows a view of EOL NMC batteries worldwide. In 2038, China, South Korea and the United States (US) will be the three leading countries in the recovery of NMC battery materials. An overall global flow of NMC battery materials (aluminium, copper, manganese, steel, lithium and graphite/carbon) was also predicted in this research. This study estimated the waste potential of NMC battery materials specifically in the top 10 countries and also in other countries. Finally, the economic value estimation results for recovered materials indicated that copper, aluminium and manganese will have cumulative economic values of 7.9, 4.4 and 3.9 billion US dollars in 2038, respectively. As this study considers the different specific energy of NMC batteries in the coming years due to technological advancement, the findings can provide a more realistic insight into the future demand for NMC battery materials. This study reveals that a high number of EOL NMC batteries will be accumulated in 2038 in several countries. Therefore, large-scale recycling infrastructures should be set up to improve the efficiency of the recovery of battery materials.
全球市场对电池电动汽车 (BEV) 的需求持续增长，这导致生产锂离子电池 (LIB) 的材料需求也在增加。因此，必须通过再利用或回收来妥善处理电池的使用寿命终止 (EOL)，以最小化未来 LIB 供应链的问题。本研究分析了从 BEV 中报废的全球锂镍锰钴 (NMC) 氧化物电池的分布情况。使用斯坦福估计模型，假设 NMC 电池的寿命遵循威布尔分布。收集了 2009 年至 2018 年 NMC 电池的全球销售数据，并根据历史趋势和前 10 个 BEV 销售国家的 BEV 发展计划，对 2019 年至 2030 年的销售数据进行了估计。结果显示了全球范围内 EOL NMC 电池的情况。到 2038 年，中国、韩国和美国将成为 NMC 电池材料回收的三个领先国家。本研究还预测了全球范围内 NMC 电池材料（铝、铜、锰、钢、锂和石墨/碳）的总体流动情况。本研究估计了 NMC 电池材料在 10 个主要国家和其他国家的潜在废物量。最后，对回收材料的经济价值评估结果表明，到 2038 年，铜、铝和锰的累计经济价值将分别达到 79 亿美元、44 亿美元和 39 亿美元。由于本研究考虑了未来几年由于技术进步而导致的不同 NMC 电池的特定能量，因此该研究结果可以更真实地了解未来对 NMC 电池材料的需求。本研究表明，由于技术进步，在未来几年内，许多国家将积累大量的报废 NMC 电池。因此，应建立大规模的回收基础设施，以提高电池材料回收的效率。
