Orben Amy, Lakens Daniël
MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit, University of Cambridge.
Emmanuel College, University of Cambridge.
Adv Methods Pract Psychol Sci. 2020 Jun 1;3(2):238-247. doi: 10.1177/2515245920917961. Epub 2020 Jun 11.
The idea that in behavioral research everything correlates with everything else was a niche area of the scientific literature for more than half a century. With the increasing availability of large data sets in psychology, the "crud" factor has, however, become more relevant than ever before. When referenced in empirical work, it is often used by researchers to discount minute-but statistically significant-effects that are deemed too small to be considered meaningful. This review tracks the history of the crud factor and examines how its use in the psychological- and behavioral-science literature has developed to this day. We highlight a common and deep-seated lack of understanding about what the crud factor is and discuss whether it can be proven to exist or estimated and how it should be interpreted. This lack of understanding makes the crud factor a convenient tool for psychologists to use to disregard unwanted results, even though the presence of a crud factor should be a large inconvenience for the discipline. To inspire a concerted effort to take the crud factor more seriously, we clarify the definitions of important concepts, highlight current pitfalls, and pose questions that need to be addressed to ultimately improve understanding of the crud factor. Such work will be necessary to develop the crud factor into a useful concept encouraging improved psychological research.
在行为研究中,“一切与一切相关”这一观点在科学文献的小众领域中存在了半个多世纪。然而,随着心理学领域大数据集的日益普及,“冗余”因素变得比以往任何时候都更加重要。在实证研究中被提及的时候,它常常被研究人员用来淡化那些虽然微小但具有统计学意义的效应,这些效应被认为太小而无意义。这篇综述追溯了冗余因素的历史,并考察了其在心理学和行为科学文献中的应用是如何发展到今天的。我们强调了对冗余因素是什么普遍且根深蒂固的误解,并讨论了它是否能够被证明存在或估计,以及应该如何解释它。这种误解使得冗余因素成为心理学家忽视不想要的结果的便利工具,尽管冗余因素的存在对该学科来说应该是一个极大的麻烦。为了激发大家共同努力更认真地对待冗余因素,我们澄清了重要概念的定义,突出了当前的陷阱,并提出了为最终提高对冗余因素的理解而需要解决的问题。要将冗余因素发展成为一个有助于改进心理学研究的有用概念,这样的工作是必要的。