Tatapudi Hanisha, Das Rachita, Das Tapas K
Department of Industrial and Management System Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA.
Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.
Glob Epidemiol. 2020 Nov;2:100036. doi: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2020.100036. Epub 2020 Oct 19.
Social intervention strategies to mitigate COVID-19 are examined using an agent-based simulation model. Outbreak in a large urban region, Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA is used as a case study. Results are intended to serve as a planning guide for decision makers.
The simulation model mimics daily social mixing behavior of the susceptible and infected generating the spread. Data representing demographics of the region, virus epidemiology, and social interventions shapes model behavior. Results include daily values of infected, reported, hospitalized, and dead.
Results show that early implementation of complete stay-at-home order is effective in flattening and reversing the infection growth curve in a short period of time. Whereas, using Florida's Phase II plan alone could result in 75% infected and end of pandemic via herd immunity. Universal use of face masks reduced infected by 20%. A further reduction of 66% was achieved by adding contact tracing with a target of identifying 50% of the asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic.
In the absence of a vaccine, the strict stay-at-home order, though effective in curbing a pandemic outbreak, leaves a large proportion of the population susceptible. Hence, there should be a strong follow up plan of social distancing, use of face mask, contact tracing, testing, and isolation of infected to minimize the chances of large-scale resurgence of the disease. However, as the economic cost of the complete stay-at-home-order is very high, it can perhaps be used only as an emergency first response, and the authorities should be prepared to activate a strong follow up plan as soon as possible. The target level for contact tracing was shown to have a nonlinear impact on the reduction of the percentage of population infected. Increase in contact tracing target from 20% to 30% appeared to provide the largest incremental benefit.
使用基于主体的模拟模型研究减轻新冠疫情的社会干预策略。以美国佛罗里达州迈阿密-戴德县这一大型城市地区的疫情爆发为例进行研究。研究结果旨在为决策者提供规划指导。
该模拟模型模拟了易感染者和感染者的日常社交混合行为，从而产生疫情传播。代表该地区人口统计学、病毒流行病学和社会干预措施的数据塑造了模型行为。结果包括每日的感染、报告、住院和死亡人数。
结果表明，尽早实施全面居家令对于在短时间内平缓并扭转感染增长曲线是有效的。而仅采用佛罗里达州的第二阶段计划可能会导致75%的人口感染，并通过群体免疫实现疫情结束。普遍佩戴口罩可使感染人数减少20%。通过增加接触者追踪，并以识别50%的无症状和症状前感染者为目标，感染人数进一步减少了66%。
在没有疫苗的情况下，严格的居家令虽然在遏制疫情爆发方面有效，但仍使很大一部分人口易受感染。因此，应该有一个强有力的后续计划，包括保持社交距离、佩戴口罩、接触者追踪、检测以及隔离感染者，以尽量减少疾病大规模复发的可能性。然而，由于全面居家令的经济成本非常高，它或许只能作为紧急的第一反应措施，当局应准备好尽快启动强有力的后续计划。研究表明，接触者追踪的目标水平对感染人口百分比的降低有非线性影响。将接触者追踪目标从20%提高到30%似乎能带来最大的增量效益。
