Ocagli Honoria, Brigiari Gloria, Marcolin Erica, Mongillo Michele, Tonon Michele, Da Re Filippo, Gentili Davide, Michieletto Federica, Russo Francesca, Gregori Dario
Unit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, Via Loredan 18, 35122 Padova, Italy.
Directorate of Prevention, Food Safety, Veterinary Public Health, Veneto Region, 30123 Venice, Italy.
Healthcare (Basel). 2025 Apr 18;13(8):935. doi: 10.3390/healthcare13080935.
: Contact tracing (CT) is a primary means of controlling infectious diseases, such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), especially in the early months of the pandemic. : This work is a systematic review of mathematical models used during the COVID-19 pandemic that explicitly parameterise CT as a potential mitigator of the effects of the pandemic. : This review is registered in PROSPERO. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using the PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and Scopus databases. Two reviewers independently selected the title/abstract, full text, data extraction, and risk of bias. Disagreements were resolved through discussion. The characteristics of the studies and mathematical models were collected from each study. : A total of 53 articles out of 2101 were included. The modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic was the main objective of 23 studies, while the remaining articles evaluated the forecast transmission of COVID-19. Most studies used compartmental models to simulate COVID-19 transmission (26, 49.1%), while others used agent-based (16, 34%), branching processes (5, 9.4%), or other mathematical models (6). Most studies applying compartmental models consider CT in a separate compartment. Quarantine and basic reproduction numbers were also considered in the models. The quality assessment scores ranged from 13 to 26 of 28. : Despite the significant heterogeneity in the models and the assumptions on the relevant model parameters, this systematic review provides a comprehensive overview of the models proposed to evaluate the COVID-19 pandemic, including non-pharmaceutical public health interventions such as CT. Prospero Registration: CRD42022359060.
接触者追踪(CT)是控制传染病的主要手段,例如2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19),尤其是在疫情的最初几个月。这项工作是对COVID-19大流行期间使用的数学模型的系统评价,这些模型明确将接触者追踪作为减轻大流行影响的潜在因素进行参数化。该评价已在国际前瞻性系统评价注册库(PROSPERO)登记。使用PubMed、EMBASE、Cochrane图书馆、护理学与健康领域数据库(CINAHL)和Scopus数据库进行了全面的文献检索。两名评审员独立进行标题/摘要筛选、全文筛选、数据提取和偏倚风险评估。通过讨论解决分歧。从每项研究中收集研究和数学模型的特征。在2101篇文章中,共纳入53篇。23项研究的主要目标是对COVID-19大流行进行建模,而其余文章评估了COVID-19的预测传播情况。大多数研究使用 compartmental模型来模拟COVID-19传播(26项,49.1%),而其他研究使用基于主体的模型(16项,34%)、分支过程模型(5项,9.4%)或其他数学模型(6项)。大多数应用compartmental模型的研究在一个单独的 compartment中考虑接触者追踪。模型中还考虑了隔离和基本繁殖数。质量评估分数在28分中的13至26分之间。尽管模型以及相关模型参数的假设存在显著异质性,但这项系统评价全面概述了为评估COVID-19大流行而提出的模型,包括接触者追踪等非药物公共卫生干预措施。国际前瞻性系统评价注册库(PROSPERO)注册号:CRD42022359060。