Biology Department, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, MA, USA.
Nat Ecol Evol. 2020 Dec;4(12):1622-1629. doi: 10.1038/s41559-020-01306-x. Epub 2020 Oct 26.
Changes in the temporal coherence between populations, which can influence their stability, resilience and persistence, remain a critical uncertainty of climate change. Recent studies have documented increasing spatial synchrony between populations at continental scales and linked it to anthropogenic climate change. However, the lack of long-term and global baseline perspectives on spatial synchrony presents a challenge to understanding the importance of these trends. Here, we show a steady rise in the spatial synchrony of annual tree growth from a global tree ring database over the past 50 years that is consistent across continents, species and environmental conditions and is unprecedented for the past millennium. Increasing growth synchrony coincided with warming trends and potentially rising synchrony in the temperature records. We discuss the potential driving mechanisms and the limitations in the interpretation of this trend, and we propose that increasing mutual dependency on external factors (also known as Moran's effect) linked to rising global temperatures is the most likely driver of more homogeneous global growth dynamics.
种群间的时间相干性变化会影响其稳定性、弹性和持久性，这仍然是气候变化的一个关键不确定性因素。最近的研究记录了大陆尺度上种群之间的空间同步性不断增加，并将其与人为气候变化联系起来。然而，由于缺乏关于空间同步性的长期和全球基准观点，因此理解这些趋势的重要性仍然具有挑战性。在这里，我们展示了过去 50 年来，来自全球树木年轮数据库的年度树木生长的空间同步性稳步上升，这种情况在各大洲、物种和环境条件下都存在，而且在过去一千年中也是前所未有的。增长同步性的增加与气候变暖趋势以及温度记录中潜在的同步性上升相一致。我们讨论了这种趋势的潜在驱动机制和解释限制，并提出，与全球气温上升相关的对外部因素的相互依赖（也称为莫兰效应）的增加，是导致全球增长动态更加趋同的最可能的驱动因素。
