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一个年龄和性别结构的SIR模型:理论与显隐式数值求解算法。

An age- and sex-structured SIR model: Theory and an explicit-implicit numerical solution algorithm.

作者信息

Wacker Benjamin, Schlüter Jan

机构信息

Next Generation Mobility Group, Max-Planck-Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Department of Dynamics of Complex Fluids, Am Fassberg 17, D-37077 Göttingen, Germany.

Institute for Dynamics of Complex Systems, Faculty of Physics, Georg-August-University of Göttingen, Friedrich-Hund-Platz 1, D-37077 Göttingen, Germany.

出版信息

Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Aug 31;17(5):5752-5801. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020309.

Abstract

Since age and sex play an important role in transmission of diseases, we propose a SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) model for short-term predictions where the population is divided into subgroups based on both factors without taking into account vital dynamics. After stating our model and its underlining assumptions, we analyze its qualitative behavior thoroughly. We prove global existence and uniqueness, non-negativity, boundedness and certain monotonicity properties of the solution. Furthermore, we develop an explicit-implicit numerical solution algorithm and show that all properties of the continuous solution transfer to its time-discrete version. Finally, we provide one numerical example to illustrate our theoretical findings.

摘要

由于年龄和性别在疾病传播中起着重要作用,我们提出了一种用于短期预测的SIR(易感-感染-康复)模型,其中根据这两个因素将人群划分为不同亚组,且不考虑人口动态。在阐述我们的模型及其基本假设后,我们深入分析了其定性行为。我们证明了解的全局存在性与唯一性、非负性、有界性以及某些单调性性质。此外,我们开发了一种显隐式数值求解算法,并表明连续解的所有性质都转移到了其时间离散版本。最后,我们给出一个数值例子来说明我们的理论结果。

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