Vaughan Ian P, Gotelli Nicholas J
School of Biosciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3AX, UK.
Department of Biology, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2021 Feb;36(2):104-112. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.10.002. Epub 2020 Oct 28.
Many organisms are accumulating climatic debt as they respond more slowly than expected to rising global temperatures, leading to disequilibrium of species diversity with contemporary climate. The resulting transient dynamics are complex and may cause overoptimistic biodiversity assessments. We propose a simple budget framework to integrate climatic debt with two classes of intervention: (i) climatic credits that pay some of the debt, reducing the overall biological change required to reach a new equilibrium; and (ii) options to adjust the debt repayment rate, either making a system more responsive by increasing the rate or temporarily reducing the rate to buy more time for local adaptation and credit implementation. We illustrate how this budget can be created and highlight limitations and challenges.
许多生物正在积累气候债务，因为它们对全球气温上升的反应比预期的要慢，导致物种多样性与当代气候失衡。由此产生的瞬态动态是复杂的，可能会导致对生物多样性的评估过于乐观。我们提出了一个简单的预算框架，将气候债务与两类干预措施相结合：（i）气候信用，用于偿还部分债务，减少达到新平衡所需的总体生物变化；（ii）调整债务偿还率的选项，要么通过提高偿还率使系统更具响应性，要么暂时降低偿还率，为本地适应和信用实施争取更多时间。我们说明了如何创建这个预算，并强调了其局限性和挑战。
