Institute of Ecology and Environmental Sciences of Paris, (Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Université Paris Est Créteil, INRA, IRD), Paris, France.
Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation, (Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, CNRS, Sorbonne Université), Paris, France.
Ecol Lett. 2021 Jun;24(6):1178-1186. doi: 10.1111/ele.13730. Epub 2021 Mar 22.
For many species, climate change leads to range shifts that are detectable, but often insufficient to track historical climatic conditions. These lags of species range shifts behind climatic conditions are often coined "climatic debts", but the demographic costs entailed by the word "debt" have not been demonstrated. Here, we used opportunistic distribution data for c. 4000 European plant species to estimate the temporal shifts in climatic conditions experienced by these species and their occupancy trends, over the last 65 years. The resulting negative relationship observed between these two variables provides the first piece of evidence that European plants are already paying a climatic debt in Alpine, Atlantic and Boreal regions. In contrast, plants appear to benefit from a surprising "climatic bonus" in the Mediterranean. We also find that among multiple pressures faced by plants, climate change is now on par with other known drivers of occupancy trends, including eutrophication and urbanisation.
对于许多物种来说，气候变化导致的物种分布范围变化是可以检测到的，但往往不足以追踪历史气候条件。这些物种分布范围变化滞后于气候条件的现象通常被称为“气候债务”，但“债务”一词所涉及的人口成本尚未得到证明。在这里，我们利用了约 4000 种欧洲植物物种的机会分布数据，来估算过去 65 年这些物种经历的气候条件的时间变化及其占有趋势。这两个变量之间观察到的负相关关系，首次提供了欧洲植物在阿尔卑斯山、大西洋和北方地区已经在承担气候债务的证据。相比之下，在 Mediterranean 地区，植物似乎受益于一个令人惊讶的“气候红利”。我们还发现，在植物面临的多种压力中，气候变化现在与其他已知的占有趋势驱动因素（包括富营养化和城市化）相当。
