Impact of different exposure models and spatial resolution on the long-term effects of air pollution.

Long-term exposure to air pollution has been related to mortality in several epidemiological studies. The investigations have assessed exposure using various methods achieving different accuracy in predicting air pollutants concentrations. The comparison of the health effects estimates are therefore challenging. This paper aims to compare the effect estimates of the long-term effects of air pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm, PM, and nitrogen dioxide, NO) on cause-specific mortality in the Rome Longitudinal Study, using exposure estimates obtained with different models and spatial resolutions. Annual averages of NO and PM were estimated for the year 2015 in a large portion of the Rome urban area (12 × 12 km) applying three modelling techniques available at increasing spatial resolution: 1) a chemical transport model (CTM) at 1km resolution; 2) a land-use random forest (LURF) approach at 200m resolution; 3) a micro-scale Lagrangian particle dispersion model (PMSS) taking into account the effect of buildings structure at 4 m resolution with results post processed at different buffer sizes (12, 24, 52, 100 and 200 m). All the exposures were assigned at the residential addresses of 482,259 citizens of Rome 30+ years of age who were enrolled on 2001 and followed-up till 2015. The association between annual exposures and natural-cause, cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory (RESP) mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for individual and area-level confounders. We found different distributions of both NO and PM concentrations, across models and spatial resolutions. Natural cause and CVD mortality outcomes were all positively associated with NO and PM regardless of the model and spatial resolution when using a relative scale of the exposure such as the interquartile range (IQR): adjusted Hazard Ratios (HR), and 95% confidence intervals (CI), of natural cause mortality, per IQR increments in the two pollutants, ranged between 1.012 (1.004, 1.021) and 1.018 (1.007, 1.028) for the different NO estimates, and between 1.010 (1.000, 1.020) and 1.020 (1.008, 1.031) for PM, with a tendency of larger effect for lower resolution exposures. The latter was even stronger when a fixed value of 10 μg/m is used to calculate HRs. Long-term effects of air pollution on mortality in Rome were consistent across different models for exposure assessment, and different spatial resolutions.