Blumberg Seth, Borlase Anna, Prada Joaquin M, Solomon Anthony W, Emerson Paul, Hooper Pamela J, Deiner Michael S, Amoah Benjamin, Hollingsworth Deirdre, Porco Travis C, Lietman Thomas M
Francis I Proctor Foundation, UCSF, USA.
University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
medRxiv. 2020 Oct 27:2020.10.26.20219691. doi: 10.1101/2020.10.26.20219691.
Progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been substantial, but the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted community-based control efforts.
We use a susceptible-infected model to estimate the impact of delayed distribution of azithromycin treatment on the prevalence of active trachoma.
We identify three distinct scenarios for geographic districts depending on whether the basic reproduction number and the treatment-associated reproduction number are above or below a value of one. We find that when the basic reproduction number is below one, no significant delays in disease control will be caused. However, when the basic reproduction number is above one, significant delays can occur. In most districts a year of COVID-related delay can be mitigated by a single extra round of mass drug administration. However, supercritical districts require a new paradigm of infection control because the current strategies will not eliminate disease.
If the pandemic can motivate judicious, community-specific implementation of control strategies, global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem could be accelerated.
在将沙眼作为公共卫生问题予以消除方面已取得重大进展，但新冠疫情扰乱了基于社区的防控工作。
我们使用易感-感染模型来估计阿奇霉素治疗药物延迟分发对活动性沙眼患病率的影响。
根据基本繁殖数和与治疗相关的繁殖数是高于还是低于1的值，我们确定了地理区域的三种不同情况。我们发现，当基本繁殖数低于1时，不会导致疾病控制出现显著延迟。然而，当基本繁殖数高于1时，可能会出现显著延迟。在大多数地区，一轮额外的大规模药物给药可缓解与新冠疫情相关的一年延迟。然而，超临界地区需要一种新的感染控制模式，因为当前策略无法消除疾病。
如果疫情能够推动针对特定社区明智地实施控制策略，那么全球消除沙眼这一公共卫生问题的进程可能会加快。
