Development and validation of an individualized nomogram for predicting pancreatic adenocarcinoma-specific survival: a SEER population analysis of 5,805 patients.

OBJECTIVE

A model to predict the overall survival (OS) of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PAC) is required in consideration of its inferior prognosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer between 1975 and 2016 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used as raw data. A training cohort and a verification cohort were used for internal validation and external validation, respectively. The nomogram model was constructed to predict the OS.

RESULTS

A total of 5,805 patients with PAC from 2010-2015 were analyzed. Most patients were over 65 years old (61.8%), white (81.2%), in stage IIA, IIB (49.0%), and IV (32.4%), less than 50 mm in diameter (80.2%). PAC patients with wide involvement range, no metastasis, and infiltration range more than 300 accounted for 58.2%, 67.6%, 78.2%, respectively. The vast majority of the PAC patients (90.9%) did not receive primary site surgery. Most of the PAC patients (68.1%) received chemotherapy and only 25.8% of PAC patients received radiotherapy. The overall mean survival time, overall median survival time and overall survival rate were 15.1 months, 10.0 months, and 16.7%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our nomogram that based on age, chemotherapy, grade, Radiation sequence with surgery, Radiation recode, RX Summ-Surg Prim at Site (surgery that removes and/or destroys primary tumor performed as part of the first course of therapy), size, and stage was of well prediction ability.