Elsheikh Ammar H, Saba Amal I, Elaziz Mohamed Abd, Lu Songfeng, Shanmugan S, Muthuramalingam T, Kumar Ravinder, Mosleh Ahmed O, Essa F A, Shehabeldeen Taher A
Department of Production Engineering and Mechanical Design, Faculty of Engineering, Tanta University, Tanta, 31527, Egypt.
Department of Histology, Faculty of Medicine, Tanta University, Tanta, 31527, Egypt.
Process Saf Environ Prot. 2021 May;149:223-233. doi: 10.1016/j.psep.2020.10.048. Epub 2020 Nov 1.
COVID-19 outbreak has become a global pandemic that affected more than 200 countries. Predicting the epidemiological behavior of this outbreak has a vital role to prevent its spreading. In this study, long short-term memory (LSTM) network as a robust deep learning model is proposed to forecast the number of total confirmed cases, total recovered cases, and total deaths in Saudi Arabia. The model was trained using the official reported data. The optimal values of the model's parameters that maximize the forecasting accuracy were determined. The forecasting accuracy of the model was assessed using seven statistical assessment criteria, namely, root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R), mean absolute error (MAE), efficiency coefficient (EC), overall index (OI), coefficient of variation (COV), and coefficient of residual mass (CRM). A reasonable forecasting accuracy was obtained. The forecasting accuracy of the suggested model is compared with two other models. The first is a statistical based model called autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The second is an artificial intelligence based model called nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks (NARANN). Finally, the proposed LSTM model was applied to forecast the total number of confirmed cases as well as deaths in six different countries; Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, and USA. These countries have different epidemic trends as they apply different polices and have different age structure, weather, and culture. The social distancing and protection measures applied in different countries are assumed to be maintained during the forecasting period. The obtained results may help policymakers to control the disease and to put strategic plans to organize Hajj and the closure periods of the schools and universities.
新冠疫情已成为一场影响200多个国家的全球大流行疾病。预测此次疫情的流行病学行为对于防止其传播至关重要。在本研究中,提出了长短期记忆(LSTM)网络作为一种强大的深度学习模型,以预测沙特阿拉伯的确诊病例总数、康复病例总数和死亡总数。该模型使用官方报告的数据进行训练。确定了使预测准确性最大化的模型参数的最优值。使用七个统计评估标准评估模型的预测准确性,即均方根误差(RMSE)、决定系数(R)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、效率系数(EC)、总体指数(OI)、变异系数(COV)和剩余质量系数(CRM)。获得了合理的预测准确性。将所建议模型的预测准确性与另外两个模型进行比较。第一个是基于统计的自回归积分移动平均模型(ARIMA)。第二个是基于人工智能的非线性自回归人工神经网络模型(NARANN)。最后,将所提出的LSTM模型应用于预测六个不同国家的确诊病例总数以及死亡人数;这六个国家分别是巴西、印度、沙特阿拉伯、南非、西班牙和美国。这些国家由于实施不同政策、拥有不同年龄结构、天气和文化,因而具有不同的疫情趋势。假设在预测期内维持不同国家实施的社交距离和保护措施。所得结果可能有助于政策制定者控制该疾病,并制定战略计划来组织朝觐以及学校和大学的停课时间安排。