Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA.
Ecol Lett. 2021 Feb;24(2):249-257. doi: 10.1111/ele.13637. Epub 2020 Nov 9.
Phenological shifts are well-documented in the ecological literature. However, their significance for changes in demography and abundance is less clear. We used 27 years of citizen science monitoring to quantify trends in phenology and relative abundance across 89 butterfly species. We calculated shifts in phenology using quantile regression and shifts in relative abundance using list length analysis and counts from field trips. Elongated activity periods within a year were the strongest predictor of increases in relative abundance. These changes may be driven in part by changes in voltinism, as this association was stronger in multivoltine species. Some species appear to be adding a late-season generation, whereas other species appear to be adding a spring generation, revealing a possible shift from vagrant to resident. Our results emphasise the importance of evaluating phenological changes throughout species' flight period and understanding the consequences for such climate-related changes on viability or population dynamics.
物候变化在生态学文献中有详细记录。然而，它们对人口统计学和丰度变化的意义尚不清楚。我们使用 27 年的公民科学监测数据，量化了 89 种蝴蝶物种的物候和相对丰度趋势。我们使用分位数回归计算物候变化，使用列表长度分析和实地考察的计数计算相对丰度变化。一年内延长的活动期是相对丰度增加的最强预测因子。这些变化可能部分是由化性变化驱动的，因为这种关联在多化性物种中更强。一些物种似乎在增加一个晚季世代，而其他物种似乎在增加一个春季世代，这表明从漂泊到居留的可能转变。我们的研究结果强调了在物种的整个飞行期评估物候变化并理解这种与气候相关的变化对生存力或种群动态的后果的重要性。
