Department of Institutional Research for Medical Education, Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine, Yanagito 1-1, Gifu City, 501-1194, Japan.
Medical Educational Development Center, Gifu University, Gifu, Japan.
BMC Med Educ. 2020 Nov 10;20(1):419. doi: 10.1186/s12909-020-02350-8.
Students who fail to pass the National Medical Licensure Examination (NMLE) pose a huge problem from the educational standpoint of healthcare professionals. In the present study, we developed a formula of predictive pass rate (PPR)" which reliably predicts medical students who will fail the NMLE in Japan, and provides an adequate academic support for them.
Six consecutive cohorts of 531 medical students between 2012 and 2017, Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine, were investigated. Using 7 variables before the admission to medical school and 10 variables after admission, we developed a prediction formula to obtain the PPR for the NMLE using logistic regression analysis. In a new cohort of 106 medical students in 2018, we applied the formula for PPR to them to confirm the capability of the PPR and predicted students who will have a strong likelihood of failing the NMLE.
Medical students who passed the NMLE had the following characteristics: younger age at admission, graduates of high schools located in the surrounding area, high scores in the graduation examination and in the comprehensive computer-based test provided by the Common Achievement Test Organization in Japan. However, total score of examination in pre-clinical medical sciences and Pre-CC OSCE score in the 4th year were not correlated with the PPR. Ninety-one out of 531 students had a strong likelihood of failing the NMLE between 2012 and 2017 and 33 of these 91 students failed NMLE. Using the PPR, we predicted 12 out of 106 students will have a strong likelihood of failing the NMLE. Actually, five of these 12 students failed NMLE.
The PPR can be used to predict medical students who have a higher probability of failing the NMLE. This prediction would enable focused support and guidance by faculty members. Prospective and longitudinal studies for larger and different cohorts would be necessary.
未能通过国家医师资格考试（NMLE）的学生从医疗保健专业人员的教育角度来看是一个巨大的问题。在本研究中，我们开发了一种预测通过率（PPR）的公式，该公式可可靠地预测日本将无法通过 NMLE 的医学生，并为他们提供足够的学业支持。
我们调查了 2012 年至 2017 年期间连续六届共 531 名医学生。使用入学前的 7 个变量和入学后的 10 个变量，我们使用逻辑回归分析建立了一个预测公式，以获得 NMLE 的 PPR。在 2018 年的 106 名新医学生中，我们将 PPR 公式应用于他们，以确认 PPR 的能力，并预测那些极有可能无法通过 NMLE 的学生。
通过 NMLE 的医学生具有以下特征：入学时年龄较小，毕业于附近地区的高中，毕业考试和日本综合计算机测试机构提供的综合计算机测试成绩较高。但是，临床前医学科学考试的总分和第 4 年的 Pre-CC OSCE 分数与 PPR 无关。2012 年至 2017 年间，531 名学生中有 91 名有很大可能无法通过 NMLE，其中 33 名学生未通过 NMLE。使用 PPR，我们预测了 106 名学生中有 12 名极有可能无法通过 NMLE。实际上，这 12 名学生中有 5 名未通过 NMLE。
PPR 可用于预测更有可能无法通过 NMLE 的医学生。这种预测将使教师能够提供有针对性的支持和指导。对于更大和不同队列的前瞻性和纵向研究将是必要的。
