Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, Arlington, Virginia.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2021;22(1):7-12. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2020.1836366. Epub 2020 Nov 12.
The objective of this study was to estimate the number of crash deaths specifically attributable to alcohol-impaired driving, with a focus on various strategies for introducing vehicle-based solutions. If alcohol detection systems are standard in all new vehicles, how many lives could be saved in the near term, and how long will it take to essentially eliminate alcohol-impaired driving? Alternatively, if such systems are offered as an option, how many lives could be saved?
Fatal crashes in the United States during 2015-2018 were classified by the highest driver blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and the corresponding age category of that driver. Based on the estimates of relative risk (RR) for a given driver group, eliminating alcohol in the driver's blood should lower risk by the attributable proportion, 1 - 1/RR. Multiplying this quantity by the number of deaths for the driver group yielded the estimated number of lives potentially saved if the BACs were reduced to zero.
Systems that restrict drivers with any BAC could prevent nearly 12,000 deaths per year, while systems that restrict BAC to less than 0.08 g/dL could prevent more than 9,000 deaths. Within 3 years of a mandate for vehicle-based alcohol detection systems, it is expected that the annual lives saved would be between 1,000 and 1,300. Within 6 years, it would be between 2,000 and 2,600 lives saved per year, and within 12 years it would be between 4,600 and 5,900 lives saved per year. A system required only for those convicted of alcohol-impaired driving could save between 800 and 1,000 lives per year. A system available only to fleets of vehicles could save between 300 and 500 lives per year.
Vehicle-based interventions will not immediately solve the problem of alcohol-impaired driving, but they are an important component of the overall strategy. Even if required as standard equipment in all new vehicles, it will take 12 years before there are enough to reach more than half of their potential. If vehicle-based interventions are instead voluntary or introduced as options, then progress toward a solution will be much slower.
本研究旨在估计特定归因于酒后驾驶的撞车死亡人数，重点关注引入基于车辆的解决方案的各种策略。如果所有新车都标配酒精检测系统，那么在短期内可以挽救多少生命，以及需要多长时间才能基本消除酒后驾驶？或者，如果这些系统作为一种选择提供，那么可以挽救多少生命？
根据最高驾驶员血液酒精浓度 (BAC) 和相应的驾驶员年龄类别对 2015 年至 2018 年美国发生的致命车祸进行分类。基于特定驾驶员群体的相对风险 (RR) 估计值，消除驾驶员血液中的酒精应该会使风险降低归因比例，1-1/RR。将该数量乘以驾驶员群体的死亡人数，即可得出如果将 BAC 降低到零，潜在可挽救的生命数。
限制任何 BAC 的驾驶员的系统每年可防止近 12,000 人死亡，而将 BAC 限制在 0.08g/dL 以下的系统每年可防止超过 9,000 人死亡。在基于车辆的酒精检测系统强制实施后的 3 年内，预计每年挽救的生命数将在 1,000 至 1,300 人之间。6 年内，每年将挽救 2,000 至 2,600 人，12 年内每年将挽救 4,600 至 5,900 人。仅针对酒后驾车定罪者所需的系统每年可挽救 800 至 1,000 人。仅适用于车队车辆的系统每年可挽救 300 至 500 人。
基于车辆的干预措施不会立即解决酒后驾驶问题，但它们是整体策略的重要组成部分。即使新车都标配这些系统，也需要 12 年才能达到其潜在效果的一半以上。如果基于车辆的干预措施是自愿的或作为选项引入的，那么实现解决方案的进展将会更加缓慢。
