EPhysLab (Environmental Physics Laboratory), CIM-UVIGO, Universidade de Vigo, Ourense, Spain.
EPhysLab (Environmental Physics Laboratory), CIM-UVIGO, Universidade de Vigo, Ourense, Spain.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Jan 10;751:142332. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142332. Epub 2020 Sep 10.
Portugal (Southwestern Europe) experiences a high incidence of dry hazards such as drought, a phenomenon that entails a notable burden of morbidity and mortality worldwide. For the first time in the Lisbon district, a time-series study was conducted to evaluate the impact of drought measured by the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) on the daily natural, circulatory, and respiratory mortality from 1983 to 2016. An assessment by gender and adult age population groups (45-64, 65-74, ≥75 years old) was included. To estimate the relative risks and attributable risks, generalised linear models with a Poisson link were used. Additionally, the influence of heatwaves and atmospheric pollution for the period from 2007 to 2016 (available period for pollution data) was considered. The main findings indicate statistically significant associations between drought conditions and all analysed causes of mortality. Moreover, SPEI shows an improved capability to reflect the different risks. People in the 45-64 year-old group did not indicate any significant influence in any of the cases, whereas the oldest groups had the highest risk. The drought effects on mortality among the population varied across the different study periods, and in general, the men population was affected more than the women population (except for the SPEI and circulatory mortality during the long study period). The short-term influence of droughts on mortality could be explained primarily by the effect of heatwaves and pollution; however, when both gender and age were considered in the Poisson models, the effect of drought also remained statistically significant when all climatic phenomena were included for specific groups of the total population and men. This type of study facilitates a better understanding of the population at risk and allows the development of more effective measures to mitigate the drought effects on the population.
葡萄牙（欧洲西南部）经历了高发生率的干旱灾害，如干旱，这一现象在全球范围内造成了相当大的发病率和死亡率。这是里斯本地区首次进行时间序列研究，评估 1983 年至 2016 年期间干旱（以标准化降水指数（SPI）和标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）衡量）对每日自然、循环和呼吸死亡率的影响。研究还包括了按性别和成年人口群体（45-64 岁、65-74 岁、≥75 岁）进行的评估。为了估计相对风险和归因风险，使用了具有泊松链接的广义线性模型。此外，还考虑了 2007 年至 2016 年期间的热浪和大气污染的影响（污染数据的可用时间段）。主要发现表明，干旱条件与所有分析的死亡原因之间存在统计学上显著的关联。此外，SPEI 显示出改善的反映不同风险的能力。在所有情况下，45-64 岁年龄组的人都没有表现出任何显著的影响，而最年长的组风险最高。干旱对不同研究期间的人口死亡率的影响各不相同，一般来说，男性人口比女性人口受到的影响更大（SPEI 和循环死亡率在长期研究期间除外）。干旱对死亡率的短期影响可以主要归因于热浪和污染的影响；然而，当在泊松模型中同时考虑性别和年龄时，当考虑所有气候现象时，干旱对特定人群的总人群和男性的影响仍然具有统计学意义。这种类型的研究有助于更好地了解处于危险中的人群，并能够制定更有效的措施来减轻干旱对人口的影响。
