Division of Health Administration and Promotion, Department of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, Tottori University, Yonago 683-8503, Japan.
International Platform for Dryland Research and Education, Tottori University, Yonago 680-0001, Japan.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Mar 14;19(6):3425. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19063425.
Drought has exacerbated morbidity and mortality worldwide. Here, a time series study was conducted in northern Bangladesh to evaluate the impact of drought on selected causes of mortality during 2007-2017. Rainfall and temperature data from six meteorological stations were used to analyze drought and non-drought periods and to categorize mild, moderate, severe, and extreme drought based on the 3-month and 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI). A generalized linear model with Poisson regression with log link, a negative binomial with log link, and a zero-inflated Poisson model were used to determine associations between drought severity and mortality. The SPI and SPEI produced slightly different analysis results. Compared with the SPEI, the SPI showed a stronger and more sensitive correlation with mortality. The relative risk for respiratory disease mortality was high, and Saidpur was the most vulnerable area. Health care expenditure was negatively associated with mortality. High temperatures during the drought period were associated with suicide-related mortality in Rajshahi. The impact of drought on mortality differed with small changes in climate. The findings of this study improve our understanding of the differences between the two most used drought indicators and the impact of drought on mortality.
干旱在全球范围内加剧了发病率和死亡率。在这里，在孟加拉国北部进行了一项时间序列研究，以评估 2007-2017 年期间干旱对选定死因的影响。使用来自六个气象站的降雨和温度数据来分析干旱和非干旱期，并根据 3 个月和 12 个月的标准化降水指数（SPI）和标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）将轻度、中度、重度和极端干旱进行分类。使用具有对数链接的泊松回归广义线性模型、具有对数链接的负二项式和零膨胀泊松模型来确定干旱严重程度与死亡率之间的关联。SPI 和 SPEI 产生了略有不同的分析结果。与 SPEI 相比，SPI 与死亡率的相关性更强且更敏感。呼吸道疾病死亡率的相对风险较高，锡尔达普尔是最脆弱的地区。医疗保健支出与死亡率呈负相关。拉杰沙希干旱期间的高温与自杀相关的死亡率有关。干旱对死亡率的影响因气候的微小变化而有所不同。本研究的结果提高了我们对这两个最常用的干旱指标之间的差异以及干旱对死亡率的影响的理解。
