EPhysLab (Environmental Physics Laboratory), Facultade de Ciencias, Universidade de Vigo, Ourense, Spain.
EPhysLab (Environmental Physics Laboratory), Facultade de Ciencias, Universidade de Vigo, Ourense, Spain.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Apr 20;662:121-133. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.217. Epub 2019 Jan 19.
Climate change scenarios indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of droughts in several regions of the world in the 21st century, especially in Southern Europe, highlighting the threat to global health. For the first time, a time-series diagnostic study has been conducted regarding the impact of droughts in Galicia, a region in north-western Spain, on daily natural-cause mortality, daily circulatory-cause mortality, and daily respiratory-cause mortality, from 1983 to 2013. We analysed the drought periods over the area of interest using the daily Standardized Evapotranspiration-Precipitation Index (SPEI) and the daily Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), obtained at various timescales (1, 3, 6, 9 months), to identify and classify the intensity of drought and non-drought periods. Generalized linear models with the Poisson regression link were used to calculate the Relative Risks (RRs) of different causes of mortality, and the percentage of Attributable Risk Mortality (%AR) was calculated based on RRs data. According to our findings, there were statistically significant (p < 0.05) associations between drought periods, measured by both the daily SPEI and SPI, and daily mortality in all provinces of Galicia (except Pontevedra) for different timescales. Furthermore, drought periods had a greater influence on daily mortality in the interior provinces of Galicia than in the coastal regions, with Lugo being the most affected. In short term, the effect of droughts (along with heatwaves) on daily mortality was observed in interior regions and was mainly explained by atmospheric pollution effect throughout 2000 to 2009 period in Ourense, being respiratory causes of mortality the group most strongly associated. The fact that droughts are likely to become increasingly frequent and intense in the context of climate change and the lack of studies that have considered the impact of droughts on specific causes of mortality make this type of analysis necessary.
气候变化情景表明，在 21 世纪，世界上几个地区的干旱强度和频率将会增加，特别是在南欧，这凸显了对全球健康的威胁。首次对西班牙西北部加利西亚地区的干旱对 1983 年至 2013 年期间的自然原因每日死亡率、循环系统原因每日死亡率和呼吸系统原因每日死亡率的影响进行了时间序列诊断研究。我们使用每日标准化蒸散-降水指数（SPEI）和每日标准化降水指数（SPI）来分析感兴趣区域的干旱期，这些指数是在不同时间尺度（1、3、6、9 个月）上获得的，以确定和分类干旱和非干旱期的强度。我们使用具有泊松回归链接的广义线性模型来计算不同原因死亡率的相对风险（RR），并根据 RR 数据计算归因于风险的死亡率（%AR）。根据我们的发现，在加利西亚所有省份（蓬特韦德拉除外），通过每日 SPEI 和 SPI 测量的干旱期与每日死亡率之间存在统计学上显著的（p < 0.05）关联（除蓬特韦德拉外）。对于不同的时间尺度，干旱期对加利西亚内陆省份的每日死亡率有更大的影响，而卢戈省受到的影响最大。短期内，干旱期（以及热浪）对内陆地区每日死亡率的影响是观察到的，这主要是由于整个 2000 年至 2009 年期间大气污染的影响，在奥伦塞，呼吸系统是死亡率最高的相关原因。在气候变化的背景下，干旱可能会变得更加频繁和强烈，而考虑干旱对特定死因的影响的研究却很少，因此这种类型的分析是必要的。
