Later onset, fewer deaths from COVID.

We test whether European countries or US states who experienced their first death from COVID-19 at a later date have fewer deaths from COVID  60 and 100 days after the start of the pandemic in their borders. Our sample consists of 29 European countries associated with the European Union and 50 U.S. states and we control for a number of demographic, economic and health-policy related factors that are likely to influence mortality. We find that late starting countries or states registered fewer deaths from COVID-19. Countries/states’ differential reliance on partial or complete lockdown policies helps explain an areas' advantage of being a late starter.