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贝叶斯时间序列模型在单病例实验设计中的应用:创伤研究人员的教程。

Bayesian Time-Series Models in Single Case Experimental Designs: A Tutorial for Trauma Researchers.

机构信息

Department of Life Sciences, Brunel University London, United Kingdom.

Department of Psychology, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas, USA.

出版信息

J Trauma Stress. 2020 Dec;33(6):1144-1153. doi: 10.1002/jts.22614. Epub 2020 Nov 17.

DOI:10.1002/jts.22614
PMID:33205545
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8246830/
Abstract

Single-case experimental designs (SCEDs) involve obtaining repeated measures from one or a few participants before, during, and, sometimes, after treatment implementation. Because they are cost-, time-, and resource-efficient and can provide robust causal evidence for more large-scale research, SCEDs are gaining popularity in trauma treatment research. However, sophisticated techniques to analyze SCED data remain underutilized. Herein, we discuss the utility of SCED data for trauma research, provide recommendations for addressing challenges specific to SCED approaches, and introduce a tutorial for two Bayesian models-the Bayesian interrupted time-series (BITS) model and the Bayesian unknown change-point (BUCP) model-that can be used to analyze the typically small sample, autocorrelated, SCED data. Software codes are provided for the ease of guiding readers in estimating these models. Analyses of a dataset from a published article as well as a trauma-specific simulated dataset are used to illustrate the models and demonstrate the interpretation of the results. We further discuss the implications of using such small-sample data-analytic techniques for SCEDs specific to trauma research.

摘要

单案例实验设计(SCED)涉及在治疗实施之前、期间和有时之后从一个或几个参与者那里获得重复测量。由于它们具有成本效益、时间效益和资源效益,并且可以为更大规模的研究提供强有力的因果证据,因此 SCED 在创伤治疗研究中越来越受欢迎。然而,分析 SCED 数据的复杂技术仍未得到充分利用。本文讨论了 SCED 数据在创伤研究中的应用,为解决 SCED 方法特有的挑战提供了建议,并介绍了两种贝叶斯模型的教程,即贝叶斯中断时间序列(BITS)模型和贝叶斯未知变化点(BUCP)模型,可用于分析通常样本量较小、自相关的 SCED 数据。提供了软件代码,以方便指导读者估计这些模型。使用来自已发表文章的数据集和特定于创伤的模拟数据集的分析来说明模型,并演示结果的解释。我们进一步讨论了使用这种小样本数据分析技术对特定于创伤研究的 SCED 的影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b6d/8246830/07edf75d6346/JTS-33-1144-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b6d/8246830/8fbbe004524f/JTS-33-1144-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b6d/8246830/2de79f1ae4ce/JTS-33-1144-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b6d/8246830/07edf75d6346/JTS-33-1144-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b6d/8246830/8fbbe004524f/JTS-33-1144-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b6d/8246830/2de79f1ae4ce/JTS-33-1144-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b6d/8246830/07edf75d6346/JTS-33-1144-g003.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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Behav Res Methods. 2020 Aug;52(4):1714-1728. doi: 10.3758/s13428-020-01345-z.
2
Real-time monitoring technology in single-case experimental design research: Opportunities and challenges.单病例实验设计研究中的实时监测技术:机遇与挑战。
Behav Res Ther. 2019 Jun;117:87-96. doi: 10.1016/j.brat.2018.11.017. Epub 2018 Dec 7.
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Reducing intrusive memories of trauma using a visuospatial interference intervention with inpatients with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
准确模型与准确估计:贝叶斯单病例实验设计的模拟研究。
Behav Res Methods. 2021 Aug;53(4):1782-1798. doi: 10.3758/s13428-020-01522-0. Epub 2021 Feb 11.
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Comparing the Bayesian Unknown Change-Point Model and Simulation Modeling Analysis to Analyze Single Case Experimental Designs.比较贝叶斯未知变化点模型与模拟建模分析以分析单病例实验设计。
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使用视空间干扰干预减少创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)住院患者的侵入性记忆。
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e-PTSD: an overview on how new technologies can improve prediction and assessment of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD).电子创伤后应激障碍:关于新技术如何改善创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)预测与评估的概述
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Bayesian unknown change-point models to investigate immediacy in single case designs.贝叶斯未知变点模型在单病例设计中即时性的研究。
Psychol Methods. 2017 Dec;22(4):743-759. doi: 10.1037/met0000134. Epub 2017 Apr 13.
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