School of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.
College of Economics and Management, Henan Agricultural University Zhengzhou, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Jan 20;753:142228. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142228. Epub 2020 Sep 9.
This research examines the heterogeneous dynamic links among healthcare expenditures, land urbanization, and CO emissions across the development levels of China. To this end, data of 27 Chinese provinces are considered from 1999 to 2018. Theoretically, this research developed a healthcare expenditures-augmented Stochastic Impacts of Regression by Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model to incorporate healthcare expenditures as a determinant of affluence. Empirically, this research established a system of simultaneous equations based on the healthcare expenditures-augmented STIRPAT model to estimate the links among the variables. As a pre-analysis, second-generation Westerlund cointegration is applied and found the long-term equilibrium association among the variables. The long-run estimations and short-run causality are done by employing dynamic common correlated effects mean group method (DCCEMGM) and Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality. A heterogeneous long-run equilibrium linkage is confirmed to exist among the variables of interest. Concerning the long-run estimates, firstly, the healthcare expenditures growth and land urbanization exhibited a bilateral positive link. Secondly, CO emissions and healthcare expenditures growth manifested the existence of a bilateral positive link. And thirdly, a unilateral positive (negative) link is revealed to exist from a linear term (squared term) of land urbanization to CO emissions. Concerning the short-run results, firstly, a bilateral causal bond exists between the land urbanization and healthcare expenditures growth. Secondly, a bilateral causal bond prevails between CO emissions growth and healthcare expenditures growth. Finally, a unilateral causal bond is operational from land urbanization to CO emissions growth. In terms of the nature of the link, the long-run findings are consistent across the data samples. However, considering the degree of influence, heterogeneity is confirmed across the development levels for both long- and short-run. It infers that relatively more (less) developed regions showed relatively strong (weak) influence. Based on empirical findings, relevant policies are recommended.
本研究考察了中国发展水平不同的医疗支出、土地城市化和 CO2 排放之间的异质动态联系。为此,考虑了 1999 年至 2018 年中国 27 个省份的数据。从理论上讲,本研究开发了一个医疗支出增强的随机冲击回归人口、富裕和技术模型(STIRPAT),将医疗支出作为富裕的决定因素纳入其中。从经验上看,本研究基于医疗支出增强的 STIRPAT 模型建立了一个联立方程组,以估计变量之间的联系。作为预分析,应用了第二代 Westerlund 协整检验,并发现了变量之间的长期均衡关系。通过使用动态共同相关影响均值组方法(DCCEMGM)和 Dumitrescu-Hurlin 因果关系进行了长期估计和短期因果关系分析。确认了感兴趣的变量之间存在异质的长期均衡联系。关于长期估计,首先,医疗支出增长和土地城市化呈双边正相关。其次,CO2 排放与医疗支出增长呈双边正相关。第三,从土地城市化的线性项(平方项)到 CO2 排放,存在单向正(负)相关关系。关于短期结果,首先,土地城市化和医疗支出增长之间存在双边因果关系。其次,CO2 排放增长和医疗支出增长之间存在双边因果关系。最后,从土地城市化到 CO2 排放增长存在单向因果关系。就联系的性质而言,长期结果在整个数据样本中是一致的。然而,考虑到影响程度,在长期和短期都确认了发展水平的异质性。这意味着相对发达(欠发达)地区的影响相对较强(弱)。根据实证结果,提出了相关政策建议。