Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Department of Physics, Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Sci Rep. 2020 Nov 18;10(1):20040. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-76930-5.
By studying transition probabilities of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models, we revisit one of the stability indicators of the AMOC, i.e. the freshwater transport carried by the AMOC at the southern boundary of the Atlantic basin. A correction to this indicator, based on the transition probabilities, is suggested to measure whether an AMOC state is in a multiple equilibrium regime or not. As a consequence, the AMOC of all CMIP5 models considered is in a multiple equilibrium regime and hence, in principle, a collapsed AMOC state should exist in each of these models. The results further demonstrate the dependence of the Atlantic surface freshwater flux on the AMOC and the impact of extreme events in the AMOC on temperatures in the North Atlantic region.
通过在一组 CMIP5 气候模型中研究大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）的跃迁概率，我们重新研究了 AMOC 的稳定性指标之一，即 AMOC 在大西洋盆地南部边界携带的淡水输送。建议对此指标进行修正，基于跃迁概率来衡量 AMOC 状态是否处于多重平衡状态。因此，考虑的所有 CMIP5 模型的 AMOC 都处于多重平衡状态，因此，原则上，这些模型中的每个模型都应该存在崩溃的 AMOC 状态。结果进一步证明了大西洋表面淡水通量对 AMOC 的依赖性，以及 AMOC 中的极端事件对北大西洋地区温度的影响。
