Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany.
Science. 2012 Jan 6;335(6064):76-9. doi: 10.1126/science.1210299.
Attempts to predict changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have yielded little success to date. Here, we demonstrate predictability for monthly mean AMOC strength at 26.5°N for up to 4 years in advance. This AMOC predictive skill arises predominantly from the basin-wide upper-mid-ocean geostrophic transport, which in turn can be predicted because we have skill in predicting the upper-ocean zonal density difference. Ensemble forecasts initialized between January 2008 and January 2011 indicate a stable AMOC at 26.5°N until at least 2014, despite a brief wind-induced weakening in 2010. Because AMOC influences many aspects of climate, our results establish AMOC as an important potential carrier of climate predictability.
目前，预测大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）变化的尝试收效甚微。在这里，我们证明了在 26.5°N 处的月平均 AMOC 强度可以提前 4 年进行预测。这种 AMOC 预测技巧主要来自于整个盆地的上中层海洋地转流，而这反过来又可以进行预测，因为我们在预测上层海洋纬向密度差方面有技巧。2008 年 1 月至 2011 年 1 月之间初始化的集合预报表明，26.5°N 的 AMOC 至少在 2014 年之前保持稳定，尽管 2010 年出现了短暂的风引起的减弱。由于 AMOC 影响气候的许多方面，我们的结果表明 AMOC 是气候可预测性的一个重要潜在载体。
