Magesa Emmanuel, Mitonga Kabwebwe Honore, Angula Penehafo
School of Public Health, University of Namibia, Namibia.
J Public Health Afr. 2020 Apr 29;11(1):1029. doi: 10.4081/jphia.2020.1029.
HIV/AIDS continue to be serious communicable disease whose impact on public health in Namibia is massive. It is estimated that the prevalence rate of HIV in Namibia is 17.2%, ranking the country as the fifth highest in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Some improvement in reducing the number of cases of HIV/AIDS has been made in the country, but the sporadic shortage of medicines continues to slow down government efforts to foster the emergence of an HIVfree generation of Namibians. Develop and demonstrate a mathematical supply-chain model, which can establish parameters to prevent stock-outs of NVP suspension. The study adopted retrospective approach to acquire data from 2012-2016. Gamma supply chain model was developed as the optimal model for NVP syrup and forecasted consumption for 2017-2018 was determined. It is a recommendation of this study that new guidelines for implementation of optimal supply-chain models at the regional medical store, health centers and clinics be implemented for Nevirapine syrup.
艾滋病毒/艾滋病仍然是一种严重的传染病，对纳米比亚的公共卫生产生了巨大影响。据估计，纳米比亚的艾滋病毒流行率为17.2%，在撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）排名第五。该国在减少艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例数量方面取得了一些进展，但药品的零星短缺继续减缓政府培育一代无艾滋病毒纳米比亚人的努力。开发并展示一个数学供应链模型，该模型可以建立参数以防止奈韦拉平混悬液缺货。该研究采用回顾性方法从2012年至2016年获取数据。开发了伽马供应链模型作为奈韦拉平糖浆的最优模型，并确定了2017年至2018年的预测消费量。本研究建议为奈韦拉平糖浆在区域医疗商店、健康中心和诊所实施最优供应链模型制定新的指导方针。
