School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China.
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China; Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Solid Waste Treatment and Resource Recovery, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China.
Waste Manag. 2021 Feb 1;120:725-733. doi: 10.1016/j.wasman.2020.10.040. Epub 2020 Nov 20.
Fast urbanization and economic prosperity generate huge amount of municipal solid waste (MSW). It is therefore critical to identify the determinants of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from MSW treatment and prepare potential GHG mitigation measures. A combined System Dynamics - Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model is developed to identify the driving forces of GHG emission generated from MSW treatment and explore the mitigation potentials. Shanghai, a typical megacity in China is selected as a case study. Results showed that economic development, population scale and emission intensity were driving forces to induce GHG emissions from MSW treatment, while generation intensity and treatment structure were the factors to mitigate GHG emissions from MSW during 2000-2017. Scenario analysis further revealed that landfill gas utilization and MSW separation improvement were the most effective measures in reducing GHG emissions from MSW treatment, leading to about 88.07% and 85.48% of reduction compared with the business-as-usual scenario in 2050. Scenarios of improving incineration rate, reducing per capita MSW generation and restricting population growth will reduce GHG emissions by 72.29%, 30.06% and 0.30%, respectively. Utilizing landfill gas, improving MSW separation and promoting green behaviors are suggested to mitigate GHG emissions from MSW treatment.
快速的城市化和经济繁荣产生了大量的城市固体废物（MSW）。因此，确定城市固体废物处理过程中温室气体（GHG）排放的决定因素并准备潜在的 GHG 减排措施至关重要。本文构建了一个系统动力学-对数平均迪氏指数模型，以识别城市固体废物处理过程中 GHG 排放的驱动因素，并探讨减排潜力。以上海市为例进行了实证分析。结果表明，经济发展、人口规模和排放强度是导致城市固体废物处理过程中 GHG 排放的驱动因素，而产生强度和处理结构是减少城市固体废物处理过程中 GHG 排放的因素。情景分析进一步表明，垃圾填埋气利用和垃圾分离改进是减少城市固体废物处理过程中 GHG 排放的最有效措施，与 2050 年的基准情景相比，可分别减少 88.07%和 85.48%的 GHG 排放。提高焚烧率、减少人均城市固体废物产生量和限制人口增长的情景分别可减少 72.29%、30.06%和 0.30%的 GHG 排放。建议利用垃圾填埋气、提高垃圾分离水平和推广绿色行为来减少城市固体废物处理过程中的 GHG 排放。
