ETH Zürich, Institute of Environmental Engineering, John-von-Neumann-Weg 9, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland.
Environ Sci Technol. 2020 Dec 15;54(24):16028-16038. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.0c05691. Epub 2020 Nov 23.
This work provides a globally regionalized approach for quantifying particulate matter (PM) health impacts. Atmospheric transport and pollutant chemistry of primary particulate matter, sulfur dioxide (SO), nitrogen oxide (NO), and ammonia (NH) from stack emissions were modeled and used to calculate monthly high-resolution maps of global characterization factors that can be used for life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) and risk assessment. These characterization factors are applied to a global data set of coal power emissions. The results show large regional and temporal differences in health impacts per kg of emission and per amount of coal power generation (5-1300 DALY TWh). While small emission reductions of PM and SO from coal power lead to similar health benefits across densely populated areas of Asia and Europe, we find that larger emission reductions result in up to three times higher health benefits in parts of Asia because of the nonlinear health responses to pollution exposure changes. Hence, many regions in Asia benefit disproportionately much from large coal power PM and SO emission reductions. NO emission reductions can lead to equally high health benefits, where unfavorable atmospheric conditions coincide with elevated NH background pollution and large population (e.g., in Central Europe, Indonesia, or Japan but also numerous other places).
本研究提出了一种全球性区域方法,用于量化颗粒物 (PM) 对健康的影响。通过模拟大气传输和主要颗粒物(二氧化硫 (SO)、氮氧化物 (NO) 和氨 (NH))的污染物化学特性,从烟囱排放中计算出可用于生命周期影响评估 (LCIA) 和风险评估的全球特征因子的月度高分辨率图谱。这些特征因子应用于全球煤炭发电排放数据集。结果表明,每公斤排放和每单位煤炭发电量的健康影响存在较大的区域和时间差异(5-1300 人年每太瓦时)。虽然减少煤炭发电产生的 PM 和 SO 排放会在亚洲和欧洲人口密集地区产生类似的健康效益,但我们发现,由于污染暴露变化的健康反应呈非线性,更大幅度的减排会导致亚洲部分地区的健康效益提高多达三倍。因此,亚洲的许多地区都将从大规模的煤炭发电 PM 和 SO 减排中获得不成比例的巨大收益。减少 NO 排放也可以带来同样高的健康效益,例如在大气条件不利且 NH 背景污染严重且人口众多的地区(如中欧、印度尼西亚或日本,但也有许多其他地区)。