School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Nov 20;17(22):8632. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17228632.
It is generally believed that land-use changes can affect a variety of ecosystem services (ES), but the relationships involved remain unclear due to a lack of systematic knowledge and gaps in data. In order to make rational decisions for land-use planning that is grounded in a systematic understanding of trade-offs between different land-use strategies, it is very important to understand the response mechanisms of various ecosystem services to changes in land-use. Therefore, the objective of our study is to assess the effects of land-use change on six ecosystem services and their trade-offs among the ecosystem services in the ecological conservation area (ECA) in Beijing, China. To do this, we projected future land-use in 2030 under three different scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Ecological Protection (ELP), and Rapid Urban Development (RUD), using GeoSOS-FLUS model. Then, we quantified six ecosystem services (carbon storage, soil conservation, water purification, habitat quality, flood regulation, and food production) in response to land-use changes from 2015 to 2030, using a spatially explicit InVEST model. Finally, we illustrated the trade-offs and/or synergistic relationships between each ecosystem service quantified under each of the different scenarios in 2030. Results showed that built-up land is projected to increase by 281.18 km at the cost of water bodies and cultivated land from 2015 to 2030 under the RUD scenario, while forest land is projected to increase by 152.38 km under the ELP scenario. The carbon storage, soil conservation, habitat quality, and the sum of ecosystem services (SES) would enrich the highest level under the ELP scenario. Land-use strategies that follow the ELP scenario can better maintain the ecosystem services and sustainable development of natural and social economic systems.
人们普遍认为土地利用变化会影响多种生态系统服务（ES），但由于缺乏系统知识和数据缺口，相关关系仍不清楚。为了使基于不同土地利用策略之间权衡的土地利用规划决策更加合理，了解各种生态系统服务对土地利用变化的响应机制非常重要。因此，我们的研究目的是评估土地利用变化对中国北京生态保护区（ECA）六种生态系统服务及其相互作用的影响。为此，我们使用 GeoSOS-FLUS 模型，在三种不同情景下预测了 2030 年的未来土地利用情景：照常情景（BAU）、生态保护情景（ELP）和快速城市化发展情景（RUD）。然后，我们使用空间显式 InVEST 模型量化了从 2015 年到 2030 年土地利用变化对六种生态系统服务（碳储存、土壤保持、水净化、生境质量、洪水调节和粮食生产）的响应。最后，我们展示了在 2030 年的不同情景下量化的每种生态系统服务之间的权衡和/或协同关系。结果表明，在 RUD 情景下，到 2030 年，预计建设用地将以水体和耕地为代价增加 281.18 平方公里，而森林用地预计将在 ELP 情景下增加 152.38 平方公里。在 ELP 情景下，碳储存、土壤保持、生境质量和生态系统服务总和（SES）将达到最高水平。遵循 ELP 情景的土地利用策略可以更好地维持生态系统服务和自然及社会经济系统的可持续发展。
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