College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China.
Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Mar 29;18(7):3552. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18073552.
Predicting the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and trade-off/synergy relationships of ecosystem service value (ESV) under different policy scenarios is of great significance for realizing regional sustainable development. This study established a framework and used the geographical simulation and optimization systems-future land use simulation (GeoSOS-FLUS) model and bivariate local autocorrelation analysis to stimulate and predict the impact of land use change on the ESV of Anyang City from 1995 to 2025. We also explored the trade-offs and synergy among ecosystem services under three policy scenarios (natural evolution, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection) in 2025. Results show that (1) the land use change in Anyang from 1995 to 2025 was significant, and the degree of land use change under the cultivated land and ecological protection scenarios was more moderate than that under the natural evolution scenario; (2) The total ESV decreased between 1995 and 2015, amounting to losses of 1126 million yuan, and the decline from 2015 to 2025 under the natural evolution scenario was more significant than those under the cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios; and (3) an obvious synergy was observed between various ecosystem services in Anyang City under different scenarios in 2025, and the most significant synergy was observed under the natural evolution scenario. In terms of spatial distribution, the agglomeration of "high-high" synergy in the west and "low-low" synergy in the central region was significant. Local areas showed "high-low" and "low-high" trade-off relationships scattered between their built land and woodland or cultivated land. The proposed framework can provide certain scientific support for regulating land use and ecosystem services in rapidly urbanized areas.
预测不同政策情景下生态系统服务价值（ESV）的时空演变特征和权衡/协同关系，对于实现区域可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究建立了一个框架，利用地理模拟和优化系统-未来土地利用模拟（GeoSOS-FLUS）模型和二元局部自相关分析，来模拟和预测安阳市土地利用变化对 1995 年至 2025 年 ESV 的影响。我们还探讨了在 2025 年三种政策情景（自然演变、耕地保护和生态保护）下生态系统服务之间的权衡和协同关系。结果表明：（1）安阳市 1995 年至 2025 年土地利用变化显著，耕地和生态保护情景下的土地利用变化程度比自然演变情景下更温和；（2）1995 年至 2015 年总 ESV 减少，损失 1.126 亿元，自然演变情景下 2015 年至 2025 年的下降幅度大于耕地保护和生态保护情景；（3）2025 年不同情景下安阳市各种生态系统服务之间存在明显的协同作用，自然演变情景下的协同作用最为显著。在空间分布方面，不同情景下安阳市的“高-高”协同集聚在西部显著，“低-低”协同集聚在中心区域显著。局部地区显示出建设用地与林地或耕地之间“高-低”和“低-高”的权衡关系。提出的框架可为调节快速城市化地区的土地利用和生态系统服务提供一定的科学支持。
