The Hague University of Applied Sciences.
Radboud University Nijmegen.
J Bus Contin Emer Plan. 2020 Jan 1;14(2):102-109.
As unpredictable major-impact events are on the rise, many organisations have adopted an organisational resilience (OR) approach for dealing with these so-called 'black swan events. What OR comprises is subject to ambiguity and multiple interpretations. This article presents a perspective that makes a distinction between predictable risks and unpredictable major-impact events. The article argues that predictable risks would benefit from an adaptive and efficient business continuity management (BCM) capability. Using several cases, the article demonstrates how the adaptability and efficiency of BCM can be improved in practice. For unpredictable events, this article calls for a strategy of anticipated improvisation. Both strategies necessitate executives and regulators to accept less planning and to put more trust in the expertise of specialists and managers.
随着不可预测的重大影响事件的不断增加，许多组织已经采取了组织弹性（OR）方法来应对这些所谓的“黑天鹅事件”。OR 包含的内容存在模糊性和多种解释。本文提出了一种区分可预测风险和不可预测重大影响事件的观点。文章认为，可预测的风险将受益于适应性强且高效的业务连续性管理（BCM）能力。本文通过几个案例展示了如何在实践中提高 BCM 的适应性和效率。对于不可预测的事件，本文呼吁采取预期即兴创作的策略。这两种策略都需要高管和监管机构减少规划，并更多地信任专家和经理的专业知识。
