Faculty of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Korea.
Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Science. 2020 Nov 27;370(6520):1095-1099. doi: 10.1126/science.abb3368.
Unprecedented heatwave-drought concurrences in the past two decades have been reported over inner East Asia. Tree-ring-based reconstructions of heatwaves and soil moisture for the past 260 years reveal an abrupt shift to hotter and drier climate over this region. Enhanced land-atmosphere coupling, associated with persistent soil moisture deficit, appears to intensify surface warming and anticyclonic circulation anomalies, fueling heatwaves that exacerbate soil drying. Our analysis demonstrates that the magnitude of the warm and dry anomalies compounding in the recent two decades is unprecedented over the quarter of a millennium, and this trend clearly exceeds the natural variability range. The "hockey stick"-like change warns that the warming and drying concurrence is potentially irreversible beyond a tipping point in the East Asian climate system.
过去二十年，东亚内陆地区报告了前所未有的热浪-干旱并发事件。基于树木年轮的过去 260 年热浪和土壤湿度重建显示，该地区气候突然向更热和更干燥的方向转变。增强的陆地-大气耦合，伴随着持续的土壤湿度不足，似乎加剧了地表变暖与反气旋环流异常，助长了热浪，进一步加剧了土壤干燥。我们的分析表明，在过去的二十年中，这种暖干异常的幅度在过去的四分之一个世纪中是前所未有的，而且这种趋势明显超出了自然变化范围。这种“曲棍球棒”式的变化警告说，在东亚气候系统达到临界点之后，变暖与干燥的并发可能是不可逆转的。
