Feng Juan, Li Jiaxin, Jin Fei-Fei, Zhao Sen, Li Jianping
State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Beijing Engineering Research Center for Global Land Remote Sensing Products, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Nat Commun. 2025 Sep 2;16(1):8197. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-63558-0.
Heatwaves have increased in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent, posing a serious threat to socioeconomic development, natural ecosystems and human health worldwide. Assessments of trends in heatwave locations (HWL) have been hindered by the distinct regional characteristics of heatwaves across continents. Here we identify a consistent striking equatorward migration in the average latitudinal location of heatwaves occurrence over the period 1979-2023 based on various datasets. The trends of HWL in each hemisphere illustrate equatorward migration at a rate of approximately one degree of latitude per decade, which falls well into the extent of the estimated rate in the observed intertropical convergence zone contraction and the contrast in soil moisture between tropics and subtropics. Our analyses suggest that anthropogenic contribution plays a dominant role in the equatorward trends. The equatorward migration, which has already occurred and is projected to continue in future scenarios, highlights that the risk of damages and disasters caused by heatwaves may increase at lower latitudes.
热浪的频率、强度、持续时间和空间范围都有所增加，对全球社会经济发展、自然生态系统和人类健康构成了严重威胁。由于各大洲热浪具有不同的区域特征，对热浪发生地点（HWL）趋势的评估受到了阻碍。在此，我们基于各种数据集，确定了1979年至2023年期间热浪发生平均纬度位置存在一致且显著的向赤道迁移现象。每个半球的HWL趋势表明，其以每十年约一个纬度的速率向赤道迁移，这与观测到的热带辐合带收缩的估计速率范围以及热带和亚热带之间土壤湿度的差异相符。我们的分析表明，人为因素在向赤道趋势中起主导作用。这种已经发生且预计在未来情景中还会持续的向赤道迁移，凸显出较低纬度地区因热浪造成损害和灾难的风险可能会增加。
