意大利住院 COVID-19 患者队列的病死率和死亡预测因素。
Fatality rate and predictors of mortality in an Italian cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
机构信息
Department of Translational Medicine, Università del Piemonte Orientale UPO, Via Solaroli 17, 28100, Novara, NO, Italy.
Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria "Maggiore Della Carita", Novara, Italy.
出版信息
Sci Rep. 2020 Nov 26;10(1):20731. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77698-4.
Clinical features and natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ widely among different countries and during different phases of the pandemia. Here, we aimed to evaluate the case fatality rate (CFR) and to identify predictors of mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to three hospitals of Northern Italy between March 1 and April 28, 2020. All these patients had a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by molecular methods. During the study period 504/1697 patients died; thus, overall CFR was 29.7%. We looked for predictors of mortality in a subgroup of 486 patients (239 males, 59%; median age 71 years) for whom sufficient clinical data were available at data cut-off. Among the demographic and clinical variables considered, age, a diagnosis of cancer, obesity and current smoking independently predicted mortality. When laboratory data were added to the model in a further subgroup of patients, age, the diagnosis of cancer, and the baseline PaO/FiO ratio were identified as independent predictors of mortality. In conclusion, the CFR of hospitalized patients in Northern Italy during the ascending phase of the COVID-19 pandemic approached 30%. The identification of mortality predictors might contribute to better stratification of individual patient risk.
新型冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的临床特征和自然史在不同国家和大流行的不同阶段有很大差异。在这里,我们旨在评估 2020 年 3 月 1 日至 4 月 28 日期间意大利北部三家医院收治的 COVID-19 患者队列的病死率(CFR),并确定死亡的预测因素。所有这些患者均通过分子方法确诊为 SARS-CoV-2 感染。在研究期间,有 504/1697 名患者死亡;因此,总病死率为 29.7%。我们在有足够临床数据的 486 名患者(239 名男性,59%;中位年龄 71 岁)亚组中寻找死亡的预测因素。在所考虑的人口统计学和临床变量中,年龄、癌症诊断、肥胖和当前吸烟是独立预测死亡的因素。当将实验室数据添加到另一组患者的模型中时,年龄、癌症诊断和基线 PaO/FiO 比值被确定为死亡的独立预测因素。总之,COVID-19 大流行上升阶段意大利北部住院患者的 CFR 接近 30%。识别死亡预测因素可能有助于更好地对个体患者的风险进行分层。