大流行：过去、现在、未来：这就好比在霍乱和鼠疫之间做出选择。
Pandemics: past, present, future: That is like choosing between cholera and plague.
机构信息
Department of Clinical Microbiology, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Institute of Immunology and Microbiology, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
出版信息
APMIS. 2021 Jul;129(7):352-371. doi: 10.1111/apm.13098. Epub 2021 Mar 1.
Abstract
The major epidemic and pandemic diseases that have bothered humans since the Neolithic Age and Bronze Age are surveyed. Many of these pandemics are zoonotic infections, and the mathematical modeling of such infections is illustrated. Plague, cholera, syphilis, influenza, SARS, MERS, COVID-19, and new potential epidemic and pandemic infections and their consequences are described and the background for the spread of acute and chronic infections and the transition to endemic infections is discussed. The way we can prevent and fight pandemics is illustrated from the old and new well-known pandemics. Surprisingly, the political reactions through different periods have not changed much during the centuries.
摘要
调查了自新石器时代和青铜时代以来困扰人类的主要传染病和大流行病。其中许多大流行病是动物源传染病，并举例说明了对这类传染病的数学建模。描述了鼠疫、霍乱、梅毒、流感、非典、中东呼吸综合征、新冠病毒病以及新的潜在传染病和大流行病及其后果，并讨论了急性和慢性传染病传播以及向地方病感染转变的背景。从旧的和新的知名大流行病中说明了我们可以预防和对抗大流行病的方法。令人惊讶的是，几个世纪以来，不同时期的政治反应并没有太大变化。
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