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[The role of time-series propagation map and activity path of confirmed cases in the analysis and determination of COVID-19 epidemic].

作者信息

Cao L, Zhou Y J, Zhang F, Liu Y R, Wang X D, Yi C, Xu Q J, Xiao S, Wang L

机构信息

School of Public Health Hainan Medical University, Haikou 571199, China.

School of Public Health Hainan Medical University, Haikou 571199, China; National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Nov 10;41(11):1782-1785. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200305-00257.

Abstract

The time sequence transmission map and the cases travel track were used to explain the chain of transmission, describe the characteristics of transmission and analyze the mode of epidemic of novel coronavirus pneumonia, so as to provide evidence for the relevant government departments to carry out epidemic prevention and control. The time sequence transmission map and the cases travel track table were drawn, according to the time of incidence, age, sex, number of close contacts and their interrelations. At the end of February 10, 2020, 63 COVID-19 cases were reported in the research area. Among them, 57 cases were confirmed (1 deaths) and 6 cases were asymptomatic, 57 cases were imported cases (90.48), 36 cases were reported by cluster epidemic (57.14) among friends and relatives. Cases have been spread to the fourth generation. The time sequence transmission map and the cases travel track showed that, in the research area, the epidemic situation of COVID-19 was mainly caused by imported case, and the clustering transmission was the major spread model. The time sequence transmission map and the cases travel track are worth popularizing in the prevention and control of major infectious diseases.

摘要

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