Beca-Carretero Pedro, Teichberg Mirta, Winters Gidon, Procaccini Gabriele, Reuter Hauke
Department of Theoretical Ecology and Modelling, Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research, Bremen, Germany.
Dead Sea-Arava Science Center, Masada, Israel.
Front Plant Sci. 2020 Nov 16;11:555376. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2020.555376. eCollection 2020.
During the last 150 years, the tropical seagrass species has established itself in the southern and eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea. More recently (2018), was observed for the first time in the eastern Mediterranean, and was described as the second non-native seagrass species in the Mediterranean Sea. We implemented a species distribution model (SDM) approach to (1) hindcast the habitat suitability of over the last 100 years in the Mediterranean basin, and (2) to model the increase in the potential habitat suitability of and during the current century under two very different climate scenarios, RCP 2.6 (lowest carbon emission scenario) and RCP 8.5 (highest carbon emission scenario). In addition, a principal component analysis (PCA) and -means cluster based on temperature and salinity drivers were applied to visualize the distance and relatedness between the native and invasive and populations. Results from this PCA suggest that the populations of the Mediterranean and Red Sea are likely to be similar. In contrast, from the Mediterranean is more related to the Atlantic populations rather than to the Red Sea populations. The hindcast model suggests that the expansion of was related to the increases in seawater temperatures in the Mediterranean over the last 100 years. The SDMs predict that more suitable habitat will become available for both tropical species during this century. The habitat suitability for will keep expanding westward and northward as the Mediterranean continues to become saltier and warmer. In comparison, the SDMs built for forecast a restricted habitat suitability in the south-eastern Mediterranean Sea at the present environmental conditions and predicts a progressive expansion with a potential increase in habitat suitability along 85% of the Mediterranean coastline. The predicted rapid expansion of non-native seagrass species could alter the Mediterranean's seagrass community and may entail massive impacts on associated ecosystem functions and services, impacts that have severe socio-economic consequences.
在过去的150年里，这种热带海草物种在地中海的南部和东部地区扎根。最近（2018年），它首次在地中海东部被观测到，并被描述为地中海的第二种非本土海草物种。我们采用了物种分布模型（SDM）方法来：（1）回溯该物种在地中海盆地过去100年的栖息地适宜性，以及（2）模拟在两种截然不同的气候情景下，即代表性浓度路径2.6（最低碳排放情景）和代表性浓度路径8.5（最高碳排放情景）下，该物种以及另一种[此处原文未提及具体物种名]在本世纪潜在栖息地适宜性的增加情况。此外，基于温度和盐度驱动因素进行了主成分分析（PCA）和K均值聚类，以可视化本土和入侵的[此处原文未提及具体物种名]种群之间的距离和相关性。PCA的结果表明，地中海和红海的[此处原文未提及具体物种名]种群可能相似。相比之下，地中海的[此处原文未提及具体物种名]与大西洋种群的关系更为密切，而非红海种群。回溯模型表明，该物种的扩张与过去100年地中海海水温度的升高有关。SDM预测，在本世纪，这两种热带物种都将有更多适宜栖息地。随着地中海持续变咸和变暖，该物种的栖息地适宜性将继续向西和向北扩展。相比之下，针对[此处原文未提及具体物种名]构建的SDM预测，在当前环境条件下，其在东南地中海的栖息地适宜性有限，并预测随着栖息地适宜性沿着地中海海岸线85%的区域逐渐增加，其分布将逐步扩大。非本土海草物种的预测快速扩张可能会改变地中海的海草群落，并可能对相关的生态系统功能和服务产生巨大影响，这些影响具有严重的社会经济后果。
