Breslin Peter B, Wojciechowski Martin F, Albuquerque Fabio
School of Life Sciences Arizona State University Tempe AZ USA.
Science and Mathematics Faculty Arizona State University Mesa AZ USA.
Ecol Evol. 2020 Oct 29;10(23):13211-13224. doi: 10.1002/ece3.6914. eCollection 2020 Dec.
Threats faced by narrowly distributed endemic plant species in the face of the Earth's sixth mass extinction and climate change exposure are especially severe for taxa on islands. We investigated the current and projected distribution and range changes of , an endemic island cactus. This taxon is of conservation concern, currently listed as vulnerable on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List and as a species of special concern under Mexican federal law. The goals of this study are to (a) identify the correlations between climate variables and current suitable habitat for ; (b) determine whether the species is a serpentine endemic or has a facultative relationship with ultramafic soils; and (c) predict range changes of the species based on climate change scenarios.
The island archipelago in Bahía Magdalena on the Pacific coast, Baja California Sur, Mexico.
We used temperature and precipitation variables at 30-arc second resolution and soil type, employing multiple species distribution modeling methods, to identify important climate and soil conditions driving current habitat suitability. The best model of current suitability is used to predict possible effects of four climate change scenarios based on best-case to worst-case representative concentration pathways, with projected climate data from two general circulation models, over two time periods.
The occurrence of the species is found to be strongly correlated with ultramafic soils. The most important climate predictor for habitat suitability is annual temperature range. The species is predicted to undergo range contractions from 21% to 53%, depending on the severity and duration of exposure to climate change. The broader implications for a wide range of narrowly adapted, threatened, and endemic plant species indicate an urgent need for threat assessment based on habitat suitability and climate change modeling.
在地球第六次物种大灭绝和气候变化的背景下，分布狭窄的特有植物物种面临的威胁对岛屿上的分类群尤为严峻。我们调查了一种岛屿特有仙人掌的当前及预测分布和范围变化。该分类群受到保护关注，目前在国际自然保护联盟红色名录中被列为易危物种，在墨西哥联邦法律下被列为特别关注物种。本研究的目标是：（a）确定气候变量与当前适合[仙人掌名称]生存的栖息地之间的相关性；（b）确定该物种是蛇纹石特有种还是与超镁铁质土壤存在兼性关联；（c）根据气候变化情景预测该物种的范围变化。
墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州太平洋海岸马格达莱纳湾的岛屿群岛。
我们使用30弧秒分辨率的温度和降水变量以及土壤类型，采用多种物种分布建模方法，以确定驱动当前栖息地适宜性的重要气候和土壤条件。利用当前适宜性的最佳模型，基于最佳情况到最坏情况的代表性浓度路径，结合来自两个通用环流模型的预测气候数据，在两个时间段内预测四种气候变化情景的可能影响。
发现该物种的出现与超镁铁质土壤密切相关。对栖息地适宜性最重要的气候预测因子是年温度范围。根据气候变化暴露的严重程度和持续时间，预计该物种的分布范围将收缩21%至53%。对于众多适应范围狭窄、受到威胁的特有植物物种而言，更广泛的影响表明迫切需要基于栖息地适宜性和气候变化建模进行威胁评估。
