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西班牙 2020 年 4 月 27 日:COVID-19 大流行第一波:病例特征及重症相关危险因素。

The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain: characterisation of cases and risk factors for severe outcomes, as at 27 April 2020.

机构信息

The members of the Working group are listed at the end of the article.

出版信息

Euro Surveill. 2020 Dec;25(50). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.50.2001431.

Abstract

BackgroundThe first wave of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic spread rapidly in Spain, one of Europe's most affected countries. A national lockdown was implemented on 15 March 2020.AimTo describe reported cases and the impact of national lockdown, and to identify disease severity risk factors.MethodsNational surveillance data were used to describe PCR-confirmed cases as at 27 April 2020. We compared case characteristics by severity categories (hospitalisation, admission to intensive care unit (ICU), death) and identified severity risk factors using multivariable regression.ResultsThe epidemic peaked on 20 March. Of 218,652 COVID-19 cases, 45.4% were hospitalised, 4.6% were admitted to ICU and 11.9% died. Among those who died, 94.8% had at least one underlying disease. Healthcare workers (HCWs) represented 22.9% of cases. Males were more likely to have severe outcomes than females. Cardiovascular disease was a consistent risk factor. Patients with pneumonia had higher odds of hospitalisation (odds ratio (OR): 26.63; 95% confidence interval (CI): 25.03-28.33). The strongest predictor of death was age ≥ 80 years (OR: 28.4; 95% CI: 19.85-40.78). Among underlying diseases, chronic renal disease had highest odds of death (OR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.29-1.68).ConclusionsCOVID-19 case numbers began declining 6 days after the national lockdown. The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain had a severe impact on elderly people. Patients with cardiovascular or renal conditions were at higher risk for severe outcomes. A high proportion of cases were HCWs. Enhanced surveillance and control measures in these subgroups are crucial during future COVID-19 waves.

摘要

背景

新冠病毒病(COVID-19)疫情在西班牙迅速蔓延,西班牙是欧洲受影响最严重的国家之一。2020 年 3 月 15 日,该国实施了全国封锁。

目的

描述报告病例以及国家封锁的影响,并确定疾病严重程度的危险因素。

方法

利用国家监测数据描述截至 2020 年 4 月 27 日的 PCR 确诊病例。我们按严重程度类别(住院、入住重症监护病房(ICU)、死亡)比较病例特征,并使用多变量回归确定严重程度危险因素。

结果

疫情于 3 月 20 日达到高峰。在 218652 例 COVID-19 病例中,45.4%住院,4.6%入住 ICU,11.9%死亡。在死亡患者中,94.8%至少有一种基础疾病。医护人员(HCWs)占病例的 22.9%。男性比女性更有可能出现严重后果。心血管疾病是一个持续存在的危险因素。患有肺炎的患者住院的可能性更高(优势比(OR):26.63;95%置信区间(CI):25.03-28.33)。死亡的最强预测因素是年龄≥80 岁(OR:28.4;95% CI:19.85-40.78)。在基础疾病中,慢性肾病的死亡风险最高(OR:1.47;95% CI:1.29-1.68)。

结论

全国封锁后 6 天,COVID-19 病例数量开始下降。西班牙 COVID-19 疫情的第一波对老年人产生了严重影响。患有心血管或肾脏疾病的患者发生严重后果的风险更高。很大比例的病例是 HCWs。在未来的 COVID-19 浪潮中,这些亚组的强化监测和控制措施至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9457/7812423/c50d1b2deb73/2001431-f1.jpg

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