Using network analysis to identify seasonal patterns and key nodes for risk-based surveillance of pig diseases in Italy.

The description of the pattern of livestock movements between herds provides essential information for both improving risk-based surveillance and to understand the likely spread of infectious diseases. This study provides a description of the temporal pattern of pig movements recorded in Italy on a 4-year period (2013-2016). Data, provided by the National Livestock registry, were described by social network analysis and the application of a walk-trap algorithm for community detection. Our results show a highly populated community located in Northern Italy, which is the focal point of the Italian industrial pig production and as a general pattern an overall decline of medium and backyard farms and an increase in the number of large farms, in agreement with the trend observed by other EU pig-producing countries. A seasonal pattern of all the parameters evaluated, including the number of active nodes in both the intensive and smaller production systems, emerged: that is characterized by a higher number of movements in spring and autumn, linked with the breeding and production cycle as pigs moved from the growing to the finishing phase and with periods of increased slaughtering at Christmas and Easter. The same pattern was found when restricting the analysis to imported pig batches. Outbreaks occurring during these periods would have a greater impact on the spread of infectious diseases; therefore, targeted surveillance may be appropriate. Finally, potential super-spreader nodes have been identified and represent 0.47% of the total number of pig holdings (n = 477). Those nodes are present during the whole study period with a similar ranking in their potential of being super-spreaders. Most of them were in Northern Italy, but super-spreaders with high mean out-degree centrality were also located in other Regions. Seasonality, communities and super-spreaders should be considered when planning surveillance activity and when applying disease control strategies.