丹麦养猪业动物流动网络的贸易模式与潜在疾病传播的关系。

Relationship of trade patterns of the Danish swine industry animal movements network to potential disease spread.

作者信息

Bigras-Poulin Michel, Barfod Kristen, Mortensen Sten, Greiner Matthias

机构信息

Groupe de Recherche en Epidémiologie des Zoonoses et Santé Publique, Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3200 Sicotte, St-Hyacinthe, Canada.

出版信息

Prev Vet Med. 2007 Jul 16;80(2-3):143-65. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.02.004. Epub 2007 Mar 26.

Abstract

The movements of animals were analysed under the conceptual framework of graph theory in mathematics. The swine production related premises of Denmark were considered to constitute the nodes of a network and the links were the animal movements. In this framework, each farm will have a network of other premises to which it will be linked. A premise was a farm (breeding, rearing or slaughter pig), an abattoir or a trade market. The overall network was divided in premise specific subnets that linked the other premises from and to which animals were moved. This approach allowed us to visualise and analyse the three levels of organization related to animal movements that existed in the Danish swine production registers: the movement of animals between two premises, the premise specific networks, and the industry network. The analyses of animal movements were done using these three levels of organisation. The movements of swine were studied for the period September 30, 2002 to May 22, 2003. For daily movements of swine between two slaughter pig premises, the median number of pigs moved was 130 pigs with a maximum of 3306. For movements between a slaughter pig premise and an abattoir, the median number of pigs was 24. The largest percentage of movements was from farm to abattoir (82.5%); the median number of pigs per movement was 24 and the maximum number was 2018. For the whole period the median and maximum Euclidean distances observed in farm-to-farm movements were 22 km and 289 km respectively, while in the farm-to-abattoir movements, they were 36.2 km and 285 km. The network related to one specific premise showed that the median number of premises was mainly away from slaughter pig farms (3) or breeder farms (26) and mainly to an abattoir (1535). The assumption that animal movements can be randomly generated on the basis of farm density of the surrounding area of any farm is not correct since the patterns of animal movements have the topology of a scale-free network with a large degree of heterogeneity. This supported the opinion that the disease spread software assuming homogeneity in farm-to-farm relationship should only be used for large-scale interpretation and for epidemic preparedness. The network approach, based on graph theory, can be used efficiently to express more precisely, on a local scale (premise), the heterogeneity of animal movements. This approach, by providing network knowledge to the local veterinarian in charge of controlling disease spread, should also be evaluated as a potential tool to manage epidemics during the crisis. Geographic information systems could also be linked in the approach to produce knowledge about local transmission of disease.

摘要

动物的活动是在数学中图论的概念框架下进行分析的。丹麦与养猪生产相关的场所被视为构成一个网络的节点,而链接则是动物的活动。在此框架下,每个农场都有一个与之相连的其他场所的网络。一个场所可以是一个农场(种猪场、育肥猪场或屠宰猪场)、一个屠宰场或一个贸易市场。整个网络被划分为特定场所的子网,这些子网将动物进出的其他场所连接起来。这种方法使我们能够可视化并分析丹麦养猪生产登记中与动物活动相关的三个组织层次:动物在两个场所之间的移动、特定场所的网络以及行业网络。动物活动的分析就是基于这三个组织层次进行的。研究了2002年9月30日至2003年5月22日期间猪的活动情况。对于两个屠宰猪场之间猪的每日移动,移动猪的中位数为130头,最多为3306头。对于屠宰猪场与屠宰场之间的移动,猪的中位数为24头。最大比例的移动是从农场到屠宰场(82.5%);每次移动的猪的中位数为24头,最多为2018头。在整个期间,农场到农场移动中观察到的欧几里得距离的中位数和最大值分别为22公里和289公里,而在农场到屠宰场的移动中,分别为36.2公里和285公里。与一个特定场所相关的网络表明,场所的中位数主要远离屠宰猪场(3个)或种猪场(26个),主要去往一个屠宰场(1535个)。认为动物活动可以根据任何农场周边地区的农场密度随机产生的假设是不正确的,因为动物活动模式具有无标度网络的拓扑结构,具有很大的异质性。这支持了这样一种观点,即假设农场间关系具有同质性的疾病传播软件仅应用于大规模解释和疫情防范。基于图论的网络方法可以有效地用于在局部尺度(场所)上更精确地表达动物活动的异质性。这种方法通过向负责控制疾病传播的当地兽医提供网络知识,也应被评估为危机期间管理疫情的一种潜在工具。地理信息系统也可以与该方法相联系,以生成关于疾病局部传播的知识。

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索