Egger Claudine, Haberl Helmut, Erb Karl-Heinz, Gaube Veronika
Institute of Social Ecology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria.
J Land Use Sci. 2020 Sep 27;15(5):652-672. doi: 10.1080/1747423X.2020.1820593.
This paper investigates to what extent the theories of Thomas Robert Malthus and Ester Boserup are still useful to analyse population and land-use trajectories in an industrial society at a regional scale. Following a model-based approach toward long-term socio-ecological research, we built two system dynamic models, each representing one theory, and calculated socio-ecological trajectories from 1961 to 2011 for a study region located within the Eisenwurzen region in Austria. Comparing the model trajectories with empirical data reveals opposing results for the fit of the dynamics of 'population and technology' compared to 'land use and technology'. Technology strongly influenced population development, whereas its impact on land-use intensity faded over time. Although these theories are usually seen as opposing, both models identify population development as a main driver for land-use changes, mainly population decreases that contributed to farmland abandonment. We find out-migration to be essential when applying the investigated theories to contemporary societies.
本文探讨托马斯·罗伯特·马尔萨斯和埃斯特·博塞拉普的理论在分析区域尺度上工业社会的人口与土地利用轨迹方面仍有多大用处。遵循基于模型的长期社会生态研究方法，我们构建了两个系统动力学模型，每个模型代表一种理论，并计算了奥地利艾森武尔岑地区内一个研究区域1961年至2011年的社会生态轨迹。将模型轨迹与实证数据进行比较，结果显示，与“土地利用与技术”相比，“人口与技术”动态的拟合结果相反。技术对人口发展有强烈影响，而其对土地利用强度的影响随时间逐渐减弱。尽管这些理论通常被视为相互对立，但两个模型都将人口发展确定为土地利用变化的主要驱动因素，主要是人口减少导致了农田弃耕。我们发现，在将所研究的理论应用于当代社会时，人口外流至关重要。
