Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestraße 15, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria; Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Viale Druso 1, 39100, Bozen/Bolzano, Italy.
Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Viale Druso 1, 39100, Bozen/Bolzano, Italy.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Nov 1;345:118728. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118728. Epub 2023 Aug 1.
Environmental and socio-economic developments induce land-use changes with potentially negative impacts on human well-being. To counteract undesired developments, a profound understanding of the complex relationships between drivers, land use, and ecosystem services is needed. Yet, national studies examining extended time periods are still rare. Based on the Special Report on land use, land management and climate change by the Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), we use the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to (1) identify the main drivers of land-use change, (2) describe past and future land-use changes in Austria between 1950 and 2100, (3) report related impacts on ecosystem services, and (4) discuss management responses. Our findings indicate that socio-economic drivers (e.g., economic growth, political systems, and technological developments) have influenced past land-use changes the most. The intensification of agricultural land use and urban sprawl have primarily led to declining ecosystem services in the lowlands. In mountain regions, the abandonment of mountain grassland has prompted a shift from provisioning to regulating services. However, simulations indicate that accelerating climate change will surpass socio-economic drivers in significance towards the end of this century, particularly in intensively used agricultural areas. Although climate change-induced impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain, it can be expected that the range of land-use management options will be restricted in the future. Consequently, policymaking should prioritize the development of integrated land-use planning to safeguard ecosystem services, accounting for future environmental and socio-economic uncertainties.
环境和社会经济发展引发土地利用变化，可能对人类福祉产生负面影响。为了抵消不良发展，需要深刻理解驱动因素、土地利用和生态系统服务之间的复杂关系。然而，仍很少有国家研究考察扩展时间段。基于奥地利气候变化专门委员会（APCC）关于土地利用、土地管理和气候变化的特别报告，我们使用驱动-压力-状态-影响-响应（DPSIR）框架来：(1) 确定土地利用变化的主要驱动因素；(2) 描述奥地利 1950 年至 2100 年之间过去和未来的土地利用变化；(3) 报告相关生态系统服务的影响；(4) 讨论管理对策。我们的研究结果表明，社会经济驱动因素（如经济增长、政治制度和技术发展）对过去土地利用变化的影响最大。农业用地集约化和城市扩张主要导致低地生态系统服务下降。在山区，山地草原的废弃促使供给服务向调节服务转变。然而，模拟表明，到本世纪末，加速的气候变化将超过社会经济驱动因素的重要性，特别是在集约农业区。尽管气候变化对生态系统服务的影响仍不确定，但可以预期，未来土地利用管理选择的范围将受到限制。因此，决策制定应优先考虑制定综合土地利用规划，以保障生态系统服务，同时考虑未来环境和社会经济的不确定性。
