Department of Economics, Tilburg University, Tilburg, The Netherlands.
Department of Finance, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
Proc Biol Sci. 2020 Dec 23;287(1941):20201756. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2020.1756.
Economic preferences may be shaped by exposure to sex hormones around birth. Prior studies of economic preferences and numerous other phenotypic characteristics use digit ratios (2D : 4D), a purported proxy for prenatal testosterone exposure, whose validity has recently been questioned. We use measures of neonatal sex hormones (testosterone and oestrogen), measured from umbilical cord blood ( = 200) to investigate their association with later-life economic preferences (risk preferences, competitiveness, time preferences and social preferences) in an Australian cohort (Raine Study Gen2). We find no significant associations between testosterone at birth and preferences, except for competitiveness, where the effect runs opposite to the expected direction. Point estimates are between 0.05-0.09 percentage points (pp) and 0.003-0.14 s.d. We similarly find no significant associations between 2D : 4D and preferences ( = 533, point estimates 0.003-0.02 pp and 0.001-0.06 s.d.). Our sample size allows detecting effects larger than 0.11 pp or 0.22 s.d. for testosterone at birth, and 0.07 pp or 0.14 s.d. for 2D : 4D ( = 0.05 and power = 0.90). Equivalence tests show that most effects are unlikely to be larger than these bounds. Our results suggest a reinterpretation of prior findings relating 2D : 4D to economic preferences, and highlight the importance of future large-sample studies that permit detection of small effects.
经济偏好可能受到出生前后暴露于性激素的影响。先前关于经济偏好和众多其他表型特征的研究使用了二、四指比率（2D：4D），这是一种被认为可以反映产前睾酮暴露的指标，但其有效性最近受到了质疑。我们使用新生儿期性激素（睾酮和雌激素）的测量值（来自脐带血，n=200），在澳大利亚队列（Raine 研究 Gen2）中研究它们与以后的生活经济偏好（风险偏好、竞争、时间偏好和社会偏好）的关联。我们发现出生时的睾酮与偏好之间没有显著关联，除了竞争偏好，其影响与预期方向相反。点估计值在 0.05-0.09 个百分点（pp）和 0.003-0.14 个标准差（s.d.）之间。我们同样发现 2D：4D 与偏好之间没有显著关联（n=533，点估计值为 0.003-0.02 pp 和 0.001-0.06 s.d.）。我们的样本量允许检测到出生时睾酮大于 0.11 pp 或 0.22 s.d.的效应，以及 2D：4D 大于 0.07 pp 或 0.14 s.d.的效应（n=0.05，功效=0.90）。等效性检验表明，大多数效应不太可能大于这些界限。我们的结果表明，需要重新解释先前将 2D：4D 与经济偏好联系起来的发现，并强调未来需要进行大样本研究，以检测小效应的重要性。
