Johnson Kenneth M
Department of Sociology and Carsey School of Public Policy University of New Hampshire.
Rural Sociol. 2020 Dec;85(4):1045-1058. doi: 10.1111/ruso.12358. Epub 2020 Nov 28.
Even before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S. population growth rate last year was the lowest in 100 years. And, from 2010 to 2019 nonmetropolitan America lost population for the first time in history. Diminished natural increase was a major contributor to this and also accelerated the incidence of natural decrease (more deaths than births), particularly in rural America. Deaths exceeded births in 46 percent of all U.S. counties-a near record high. Nearly 79 percent of these natural decrease counties were nonmetropolitan. This research uses recent data and a multivariate spatial regression model to update our understanding of the growing incidence of natural decrease in both rural and urban America. In light of the mortality increase and likely fertility declines stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic, these findings have significant implications for future nonmetropolitan demographic trends.
甚至在新冠疫情爆发之前，美国去年的人口增长率就是100年来的最低水平。而且，从2010年到2019年，美国非大都市地区的人口有史以来首次出现减少。自然增长的减少是造成这一现象的主要原因，同时也加速了自然减少（死亡人数超过出生人数）的发生率，尤其是在美国农村地区。美国46%的县死亡人数超过出生人数，接近历史最高纪录。这些自然减少的县中，近79%位于非大都市地区。本研究使用最新数据和多元空间回归模型，以更新我们对美国农村和城市地区自然减少发生率不断上升的理解。鉴于新冠疫情导致的死亡率上升以及可能出现的生育率下降，这些发现对未来非大都市地区的人口趋势具有重大影响。
