Alqarni Marei Saeed, Alghamdi Metib, Muhammad Taseer, Alshomrani Ali Saleh, Khan Muhammad Altaf
Department of Mathematics, College of Sciences King Khalid University Abha Saudi Arabia.
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science King Abdulaziz University Jeddah Saudi Arabia.
Numer Methods Partial Differ Equ. 2022 Jul;38(4):760-776. doi: 10.1002/num.22695. Epub 2020 Nov 26.
In the present investigations, we construct a new mathematical for the transmission dynamics of corona virus (COVID-19) using the cases reported in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for March 02 till July 31, 2020. We investigate the parameters values of the model using the least square curve fitting and the basic reproduction number is suggested for the given data is ℛ ≈ 1.2937. The stability results of the model are shown when the basic reproduction number is ℛ < 1. The model is locally asymptotically stable when ℛ < 1. Further, we show some important parameters that are more sensitive to the basic reproduction number ℛ using the PRCC method. The sensitive parameters that act as a control parameters that can reduce and control the infection in the population are shown graphically. The suggested control parameters can reduce dramatically the infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia if the proper attention is paid to the suggested controls.
在目前的研究中，我们利用沙特阿拉伯王国2020年3月2日至7月31日报告的病例，构建了一个关于冠状病毒（COVID-19）传播动力学的新数学模型。我们使用最小二乘曲线拟合来研究该模型的参数值，对于给定数据，建议的基本再生数为ℛ ≈ 1.2937。当基本再生数ℛ < 1时，展示了该模型的稳定性结果。当ℛ < 1时，模型是局部渐近稳定的。此外，我们使用PRCC方法展示了一些对基本再生数ℛ更敏感的重要参数。作为控制参数的敏感参数可以减少和控制人群中的感染，这些参数以图形方式展示。如果对建议的控制措施给予适当关注，建议的控制参数可以大幅减少沙特阿拉伯王国的感染情况。
