School of Biological Sciences, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
Department of Statistics, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
Glob Chang Biol. 2021 Apr;27(7):1443-1456. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15502. Epub 2021 Jan 24.
Achieving conservation objectives is time critical, but the vast number of threats and potential actions means some form of ranking is necessary to aid prioritization. Objective methods for ranking conservation actions based on when they are differentially likely to become feasible, or to succeed, are currently unavailable within existing decision-making frameworks but are critical for making informed management decisions. We demonstrate how statistical tools developed for survival (or time-to-event) analysis can be used to rank conservation actions over time, through the lens of invasive mammal eradications on islands. Here we forecast the probability of eradicating commensal rat species (Rattus rattus, R. norvegicus, R. exulans) from the New Zealand archipelago by the government's stated target of year 2050. Our methods provide temporally ranked eradication trajectories for the entire country, thus facilitating meeting nationwide policy goals. This demonstration highlights the relevance and applicability of such an approach and its utility for prioritizing globally effective conservation actions.
实现保护目标具有时间紧迫性，但由于存在大量的威胁和潜在行动，因此需要某种形式的排名来帮助确定优先级。在现有的决策框架内，目前还没有基于何时更有可能实现或成功的保护行动的客观方法进行排名，但这对于做出明智的管理决策至关重要。我们通过岛屿上的入侵哺乳动物根除的视角，展示了如何使用为生存（或时间到事件）分析开发的统计工具来随着时间的推移对保护行动进行排名。在这里，我们预测了到 2050 年政府设定的目标年，消灭新西兰群岛上共生鼠种（Rattus rattus、R. norvegicus、R. exulans）的概率。我们的方法为整个国家提供了按时间排序的根除轨迹，从而有助于实现国家政策目标。这一演示突出了这种方法的相关性和适用性，以及它在优先考虑全球有效的保护行动方面的效用。
