Zheng Zhao-Wen, Xiao Yuan-Jun, Song Wen-Dan, Ma Ting, Cheng Yong-Xiang, Huang Jing-Feng
College of Life Science, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, Xinjiang, China.
Institute of Agricultural Remote Sensing & Information Application, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2020 Dec;31(12):3979-3988. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202012.013.
We analyzed the variation trend of growing season length (GSL) of different periods in provinces (regions) of China and the corresponding movement velocity of GSL isolines at 150, 200, 250, 300 and 350 days, based on daily mean temperature data of 822 meteorological stations from 1951 to 2017. In this study, the definition of GSL given by the world meteorological organization was adopted, together with Slope, Hurst and Mann-Kendall indices. The results showed that the GSL in northern China changed significantly during 1951-2017. The extension of GSL was faster in the north than the south, and faster in high-altitude areas than low-altitude ones. The trend of future GSL change in most regions of China converged with the current extension trend. The extension of GSL in northern provinces (regions) was generally 0.1-0.2 d·a, of which the fastest was Tibet with a speed of 0.44 d·a. The period 1981-2000 was the most changeable time of GSL in Chinese provinces (regions). The growing season start (GSS) of all provinces (regions) contributed more to the GSL extension, except for Xinjiang, whose GSL extension was dominated by the growing season end (GSE). In the high-latitude or high-altitude provinces, GSL was more sensitive to the change of mean annual temperature. The higher the mean annual temperature, the longer the GSL. Since 1951, China's GSL isolines of 150, 200, 250, 300 and 350 days showed notable variations. The fastest movement velocity was the 200 days isoline in Northeast China with an average northward movement velocity of 6.11 km·a. The general principle of the movement of China's GSL isoline was that the higher the value of the isoline, the slower the northward movement, with even a southward shift in part of the 350 days isoline. The extension of GSL in China would result in the northward shift of crop planting boundary and the extension of natural vegetation growth period. However, the specific impacts of this change on the quality, crop yield, and ecosystem carbon sequestration need further research.
基于1951—2017年822个气象站点的日平均气温数据,我们分析了中国各省(区)不同时期生长季长度(GSL)的变化趋势以及GSL等值线在150、200、250、300和350天的相应移动速度。本研究采用了世界气象组织给出的GSL定义,并结合了斜率、赫斯特和曼-肯德尔指数。结果表明,1951—2017年中国北方的GSL变化显著。北方GSL的延长速度比南方快,高海拔地区比低海拔地区快。中国大部分地区未来GSL变化趋势与当前的延长趋势一致。北方各省(区)GSL的延长速度一般为0.1—0.2天/年,其中最快的是西藏,速度为0.44天/年。1981—2000年是中国各省(区)GSL变化最为剧烈的时期。除新疆外,所有省(区)的生长季开始时间(GSS)对GSL延长的贡献更大,新疆的GSL延长主要由生长季结束时间(GSE)主导。在高纬度或高海拔省份,GSL对年平均气温变化更为敏感。年平均气温越高,GSL越长。自1951年以来,中国150、200、250、300和350天的GSL等值线呈现出显著变化。移动速度最快的是中国东北地区的200天等值线,平均向北移动速度为6.11千米/年。中国GSL等值线移动的一般规律是,等值线数值越高,向北移动速度越慢,部分350天等值线甚至出现南移。中国GSL的延长将导致作物种植边界北移和自然植被生长季延长。然而,这种变化对作物品质、产量和生态系统碳固存的具体影响还需要进一步研究。