Razzaq Oyoon Abdul, Rehman Daniyal Ur, Khan Najeeb Alam, Ahmadian Ali, Ferrara Massimiliano
Department of Humanities & Social Sciences, Bahria University Karachi Campus, Karachi 75260, Pakistan.
Department of Mathematics, University of Karachi, Karachi 75270, Pakistan.
Results Phys. 2021 Jan;20:103715. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103715. Epub 2020 Dec 30.
In present time, the whole world is in the phase of war against the deadly pandemic COVID'19 and working on different interventions in this regard. Variety of strategies are taken into account from ground level to the state to reduce the transmission rate. For this purpose, the epidemiologists are also augmenting their contribution in structuring such models that could depict a scheme to diminish the basic reproduction number. These tactics also include the awareness campaigns initiated by the stakeholders through digital, print media and etc. Analyzing the cost and profit effectiveness of these tactics, we design an optimal control dynamical model to study the proficiency of each strategy in reducing the virulence of COVID'19. The aim is to illustrate the memory effect on the dynamics of COVID'19 with and without prevention measures through fractional calculus. Therefore, the structure of the model is in line with generalized proportional fractional derivative to assess the effects at each chronological change. Awareness about using medical mask, social distancing, frequent use of sanitizer or cleaning hand and supportive care during treatment are the strategies followed worldwide in this fight. Taking these into consideration, the optimal objective function proposed for the surveillance mitigation of COVID'19, is contemplated as the cost function. The effect analysis is supported through graphs and tabulated values. In addition, sensitivity inspection of basic reproduction number is also carried out with respect to different values of fractional index and cost function. Ultimately, social distancing and supportive care of infected are found to be significant in decreasing the basic reproduction number more rapidly.
目前,全世界都处于抗击致命的新冠疫情阶段,并在这方面采取了不同的干预措施。从基层到国家层面,都考虑了各种策略以降低传播率。为此,流行病学家也在加大贡献,构建能够描绘降低基本再生数方案的模型。这些策略还包括利益相关者通过数字媒体、印刷媒体等发起的宣传活动。分析这些策略的成本效益和利润效益后,我们设计了一个最优控制动力学模型,以研究每种策略在降低新冠病毒毒力方面的成效。目的是通过分数阶微积分说明有无预防措施时记忆效应对新冠疫情动态的影响。因此,该模型的结构符合广义比例分数阶导数,以评估每个时间变化的影响。在这场斗争中,全世界都遵循使用医用口罩、保持社交距离、频繁使用消毒剂或洗手以及治疗期间的支持性护理等策略。考虑到这些因素,为新冠疫情监测缓解提出的最优目标函数被视为成本函数。通过图表和列表值支持效果分析。此外,还针对分数阶指数和成本函数的不同值对基本再生数进行了敏感性检验。最终发现,保持社交距离和对感染者的支持性护理对于更快降低基本再生数具有重要意义。