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印度尼西亚新冠疫情传播的SEIR模型稳定性分析与数值模拟

Stability analysis and numerical simulation of SEIR model for pandemic COVID-19 spread in Indonesia.

作者信息

Annas Suwardi, Isbar Pratama Muh, Rifandi Muh, Sanusi Wahidah, Side Syafruddin

机构信息

Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, UniversitasNegeri Makassar, ParangTambung, South Sulawesi 90244, Indonesia.

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, UniversitasNegeri Makassar, ParangTambung, South Sulawesi 90244, Indonesia.

出版信息

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Oct;139:110072. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110072. Epub 2020 Jul 3.

DOI:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110072
PMID:32834616
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7345386/
Abstract

The Aim of this research is construct the SEIR model for COVID-19, Stability Analysis and numerical simulation of the SEIR model on the spread of COVID-19. The method used to construct the model is the SEIR model by considering vaccination and isolation factors as model parameters, the analysis of the model uses the generation matrix method to obtain the basic reproduction numbers and the global stability of the COVID-19 distribution model. Numerical simulation models use secondary data on the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia. The results obtained are the SEIR model for COVID-19; model analysis yields global stability from the spread of COVID-19; The results of the analysis also provide information if no vaccine, Indonesia is endemic COVID-19. Then the simulation results provide a prediction picture of the number of COVID-19 in Indonesia in the following days, the simulation results also show that the vaccine can accelerate COVID-19 healing and maximum isolation can slow the spread of COVID-19. The results obtained can be used as a reference for early prevention of the spread of COVID-19 in Indonesia.

摘要

本研究的目的是构建新冠疫情的SEIR模型，对该模型进行稳定性分析以及对新冠疫情传播的SEIR模型进行数值模拟。构建模型所采用的方法是将疫苗接种和隔离因素作为模型参数的SEIR模型，模型分析采用生成矩阵法来获得新冠疫情传播模型的基本再生数和全局稳定性。数值模拟模型使用印度尼西亚新冠病例数的二手数据。所得到的结果是新冠疫情的SEIR模型；模型分析得出新冠疫情传播具有全局稳定性；分析结果还表明，如果没有疫苗，印度尼西亚将出现新冠地方病。然后模拟结果给出了印度尼西亚未来几天新冠病例数的预测情况，模拟结果还表明疫苗可以加速新冠的治愈，最大程度的隔离可以减缓新冠的传播。所获得的结果可作为印度尼西亚早期预防新冠疫情传播的参考。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b65d/7345386/43dcb96aa9e5/gr9_lrg.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b65d/7345386/74fdd154ab27/gr4_lrg.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b65d/7345386/43dcb96aa9e5/gr9_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b65d/7345386/2d3092d83bef/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b65d/7345386/187524fedf5d/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b65d/7345386/ca0ce6c0f2f0/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b65d/7345386/74fdd154ab27/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b65d/7345386/bfbad0bdd73a/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b65d/7345386/7987cdcff347/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b65d/7345386/3c5593ad3fc7/gr7_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b65d/7345386/24d4ceb879d2/gr8_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b65d/7345386/43dcb96aa9e5/gr9_lrg.jpg

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